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published on 02/01/2021 06:58 / updated on 01/02/2021 06:59
(credit: Vinicius Cardoso / Esp. CB / DA Press – 03/12/19)
After a turbulent year and overcome by the debate on the new coronavirus pandemic, 2021 should be the key to the start of the articulations for the 2022 elections. The Federal District must start the seams and agreements to make the applications feasible.
For the current governor, Ibaneis Rocha (MDB), 2021 will be preponderant in the construction of a possible path to re-election. After the impact of the pandemic on the budget and on the local economy, the expectation is that, this year, the GDF will prioritize works and large deliveries that can contribute to consolidating an application by the emedebista.
Ibaneis works with the prospect of trying to be re-elected, but that is not defined. The allies of the emedebista estimate that he would not enter the dispute without concrete chances of victory. That is why 2021 is so important. The results of government evaluation surveys should guide the governor’s final decision. It was based on this type of consultation that the lawyer launched himself at Buriti in 2018 and defended, even when the numbers showed an adverse scenario, that he had the possibility of winning, what really happened.
Behind the scenes, a strong name if the current governor resigns from reelection is that of the current president of the Legislative Chamber, Rafael Prudente (MDB). Today, the trend is for him to try for a seat as a federal deputy, but without Ibaneis, the scenario would be different.
Opposition
Among those who must challenge the Ibaneis political group in 2022, one of the clearest names is that of Senator Izalci Lucas (PSDB), in a campaign practically open to Burití since 2019. Dialogue begins for a possible alliance between him and the ex-governor and ex-senator Cristovam Buarque (Citizenship). It weighs the possibility that Izalci will launch the fact that, even if he lost the elections, he would still have four years guaranteed in the Senate.
To try to strengthen himself, Izalci has been critical and has opposed the current management. He was one of the defenders, for example, of the installation of the Pandemic CPI in the Legislative Chamber. Another alternative in the group opposed to Governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) is the federal deputy Paula Belmonte (Citizenship), who, like Izalci, made harsh criticisms of points in the management of the emedebista in these first two years of mandate.
Senator José Antônio Reguffe (Podemos) is also one of those summoned for the dispute. His term in Congress ends in 2022 and the politician has been included in opinion polls commissioned by opponents. Discreet, however, he has yet to speak publicly about which path will be followed in the next elections.
With the election still about two years away, the trend is that the scenario will undergo many changes until the polls. Without strong articulations so far for Buriti, other characters stamped in local politics, such as Alberto Fraga (DEM), Rodrigo Rollemberg (PSB) and Rogério Rosso (PSD), may also appear as possibilities.
Year of exhibition
The pre-election year is the last chance for future candidates to run for office. The trend now will be to harvest what has been planted in the last two years and launch new projects to show voters the governance potential of each. The political scientist and director of Dominium Consultoria, Leandro Gabiati, explains that the tendency is for those who want to command Buriti from 2023 to focus on presenting results. “It will be a year of producing a lot. The 2022 elections are anticipated, especially because, on the national stage, the president himself always comments on the matter ”.
He believes that Ibaneis Rocha has the advantage of remaining as CEO. “The re-election of the president of the Legislative Chamber of the Federal District (CLDF), Rafael Prudente (MDB), is positive for the government, which has been well articulated and has had no obstacles,” he says. In addition, his performance in the face of the pandemic will be recognized, having been one of the first to react, even in March and April ”.
But the expert believes that there are strong names in the dispute, such as Senators Reguffe (Pode) and Leila Barros (PSB). “Will Reguffe finally leave the Legislature and try to get a seat in the Executive? Senator Leila can be an important opponent, given her good campaign. “
Another relevant point will be the way in which the left will present itself, which, for Leandro, will depend on what the Workers’ Party decides. “The PT is the largest party and, therefore, it always wants to be a running mate and impose a candidate. As for collective action, the logic would be the union. But when it comes to the logic of the party, it is difficult, because of the interests within the party and the struggle for power. A division between the parties can be positive for Ibaneis. “It is as Machiavelli says: divide to conquer.”
Three questions / Rócio Barreto, scientist and political analyst
Do you consider the possibility that the left parties unite to launch a single candidate for the GDF?
I don’t see that possibility. Possibly the PT has a candidate. Another left-wing party that gained strength in the Federal District is PSol, which may come with another candidate. I do not see, in that first moment, the union of the left. There has been no talk of a united front and I believe that, if they come, they will have very little chance of succeeding under these conditions. At this time, the left is weakened and without union for the dispute of the government here in Mexico City and, consequently, for the presidency of the Republic.
In a pre-election year, what is the trend observed in the behavior of politicians? Is it the time to be more on the street, do more advertising, invest in social networks?
This is not the right time to go outside. Taking the 2020 elections as an example, candidates who respected social distance measures and the protocols of the Ministry of Health were chosen, however, it is necessary to have groups. Investing in social media is always important, but it should be a two-way street: not just posting and thinking that people will see it. You have to talk to people, respect, listen to what they ask for and, consequently, create conditions and examples so that they believe in the possibility that what you are talking about can become a viable, responsible and possible public policy to carry out. Candidates who choose to respect the security measures and protocols of the Ministry of Health will be more successful than those who go out to bars, trying to do politics in environments unfavorable to people’s health and favorable to the proliferation of the virus.
What might be the best tactic for the governor if he wants to try to win re-election? And for the opposition you want to stand out?
The governor should be a little more concerned about health and possible corruption within his government. Remove people who are possible perpetrators of corruption and give more condition and certain transparency in health, in government spending and strengthen the relationship with the CLDF. You need to listen to people and, from that dialogue, try to make public policies for what people are demanding. Change some secretaries to give immediate answers to the population, so that there is no suspicion that your government is trying to hide something, or pass the cloth into the hands of a secretary in any area. Immediate action is needed, especially in health and education. The opposition is a bit quiet and fragile and loses opportunities, because the failures, the emptiness and the space that the government has left, especially when it comes to serving the people, must be better used. The opposition must reassert itself and, while criticizing a slip by the governor or the secretaries, offer proposals that are likely to materialize.
