The increase in Covid cases in ES puts 35 cities at moderate risk

The increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in the state, which has been registered since October, now places 35 municipalities at moderate risk of transmission of the disease on the map of Espírito Santo. In addition to Vitória, Cariacica, Viana, Barra de São Francisco and Ecoporanga, which were already at this stage this week, another 30 cities registered a worsening in their indicators and left the risk of contagion low. The data was presented by Governor Renato Casagrande in a speech tonight (27).

“Practically every day the number of cases identified is always higher than 1,000. The average is 1,100 in the last 14 days. When there are more people identified, we begin to have more people hospitalized. Some of these people need hospital care and Unfortunately , there is an increase in the number of people losing their lives. This is what we have seen in recent weeks. We have had eight or nine deaths on average during 14 days, now we are close to 15. We almost doubled. We are in a second phase of the wave. There is a new pressure “, enumerates Casagrande.

The new risk map, which will be developed from Monday (30) to Sunday (6), covers the entire Gran Vitória and other large municipalities in the interior of the state, such as Cachoeiro de Itapemirim (South) and Linhares (North), or that is, more than half of the population of Espírito Santo in a situation of greater vulnerability before Covid-19.

The risk classification is represented by colors and, after a short period in which green occupied almost the entire map, now the Holy Spirit has returned to “yellow”, as the governor points out, indicating that the possibility of disease transmission has increased.

“The map began to turn yellow. It was practically all green for 15 days. This shows that the pandemic is growing,” emphasizes Casagrande.

The significant change in the map is the result of greater pressure on the health system, since, with the growth in the number of infected, more people have been hospitalized. The ICU bed occupancy rate is an indicator of vulnerability that, associated with three types of hazards in municipalities – active cases, moving average of deaths and population tests – determines the risk classification of cities.

“In hospitals run by the state government, we have 280 people admitted to the ICU. Today we already have 367. Almost 100 more people. This made us go beyond the 50% occupancy of potential beds. Whenever we pass this level, our risk matrix changes due to vulnerability. We have more than 51%, ”says Casagrande.

In occupation below 50% of the potential beds (total supply that the State can reach), Espírito Santo is classified as adequate; from 50 to 80%, the alert continues; 80 to 90%, critical situation; and, above that index, the crisis plan is reached. At the height of the pandemic, the state reached the third stage. In a report last Monday (23), Gazeta already warned of the possibility of changing the risk map due to the rate of ICU use. Last week (20) the indicator was at 49.2 and this Friday it reached 51.33.

The transmission rate of the new coronavirus in the State reached the mark of 1.16, which indicates that ten people can infect another 12. Despite the decrease compared to the previous week, it has remained stable above 1, more significantly, for the fourth week in a row.

In the interior of Espírito Santo, the contagion rate went from 1.5 to 1.31, which represents ten people contaminating another 13. The contamination situation is not different in Gran Vitória, where the indicator went from 1.32 to 1, 02.

Pablo Lira, Director of Integration and Special Projects of the Jones dos Santos Neves Institute (IJSN), points out that the indicator above 1 indicates the contagion of the disease. “There is a stabilization of the rate, with small changes, but above 1”, he says, noting that the transmission rate calculation considers the consolidated data of the last two weeks.

As a result, confirmed cases of the disease and deaths, which have had an increasing trend in the last fifteen days, have not yet been reflected in the indicator. “With the number of confirmed cases increasing and the growth trend in deaths, next week the trend is for a higher transmission rate, showing the speed of contagion,” he explains.

Projections for the progression of the disease in the coming weeks indicate that on December 12, Espírito Santo will be in a scenario that includes a range of confirmed cases of Covid-19 ranging from 205,000 to 215,000. Scenario that he considers, according to Lira, the reference of the last weeks.

Lira points out that before September the transmission rate of the disease was below 1, with a decreasing contagion rate. “But in the last four weeks the rate has reached 1.3, 1.4, which indicates that the speed of contagion is increasing,” he observes.

Just to give you an idea, in the projections made for November 28, they indicated that on this date we would be in a scenario with confirmed cases ranging from 179,000 to 183,000. According to information from the Covid panel on Friday (27), Espírito Santo already has 186,574 confirmed cases, entering the worst projected scenario, when we would be in the range of 184,000 to 189,000 cases.

Regarding deaths, projections indicate that on December 12 we should reach a range between 4,402 and 4,472 deaths. Today, according to information from the Covid panel this Friday (27), Espírito Santo already has 4,224 dead.

Among the factors that led to the increase in contagion, Lira highlights, is the expansion of the tests. But she alone was not responsible for the growth in confirmed cases.

“There was an expressive reflection of the extended holiday periods and the electoral campaign.” The increase in contagion was driven by the extended holiday of September 7, followed by October 12, and also by the events related to the electoral process, which expanded the gathering of the people, ”says Lira.

Lira believes that we are at a time of great care to maintain control of the disease. “All the care is needed to stop the increase in confirmed cases of the disease, which is already putting pressure on the health system, with the growth of occupied ICU beds. They can also affect the increase in the number of deaths, which is already on a growing trend ”, he points out.