Datafolha in Recife: Marília Arraes, 41%; João Campos, 34% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

The results were the following:

• Marília Arraes (PT): 41%
• João Campos (PSB): 34%
• Blank / null: 21%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 3%

In valid votes, the results were the following:

• Marília Arraes (PT): 55%
• João Campos (PSB): 45%

For the calculation of valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample. The procedure is the same that the Electoral Tribunal uses to disclose the official result of the election. To win in the second round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

According to Datafolha, Marília Arraes has a greater advantage among men (41% to 30%) than among women (42% to 37%). In the analysis by age, it is ahead in the range of 16 to 24 years (42% to 32%), among those from 25 to 34 years (47% to 30%) and in the group of 35 to 44 years ( 41% to 30%). In the others, there is a tie (38% for Marília and 37% for João Campos among those aged 45 to 59 years and 41% to 40% in the segment aged 60 and over).

Among voters with primary education, the PSB candidate has 46%, compared to 41% for the PT candidate. In the portion with average schooling, 39% would vote in Marília and 32% in Campos, and among voters with higher education, the advantage is that of the PT (46% to 25%). The rate of voters who pretend to vote blank or null jumps from 9% among the least educated to 26% among those with a medium educational level, to the same level as the most educated (27%).

By income bracket, the PT candidate has 43% of voters with a family income of up to two minimum wages, compared to 37% for Campos. In the rest, the advantage widens: 40% to 31% in the portion with incomes of two to five minimum wages, and 42% to 26% among the richest, with family incomes above five wages.

Among the voters who claim to have voted for Mendonça Filho (DEM) in the first round of the elections, 28% now prefer Marília and 27% intend to vote for João Campos, and 40% choose a vote in blank or null. In the electorate that voted for Patrícia Patrícia (Pode), 17% intend to vote for the PT, and 24% in Campos, with a majority migration to the blank or null vote (57%).

According to Datafolha, 80% of voters correctly quote the number they will write in the ballot box, in the second round, with the knowledge of the number of Campos (86%) at a level close to that registered for Marília’s (80%).

A large majority (88%) is also fully determined on their vote, with voters convinced of the PT candidate (91%) and Campos (87%) at a similar level at this time. Among those who declare to vote blank or null, 86% are also fully determined.

According to Datafolha, for 39% of voters, the defeated candidate Mendonça Filho (DEM) should support Marília Arraes in the second round, and 34% believe that he should offer support to João Campos. Among those who voted for the DEM candidate, 29% would like to see him support the PT candidate and 27% the PSB candidate. However, for 37% of Mendonça voters, they should not support any of them and 8% did not respond.

Overall, 35% of Recife voters believe that Mendonça Filho will support Campos in the second round. For 30% they will offer support to Marília Arraes, and 25% estimate that they will not support any of the candidates, with 11% having no opinion on the matter.

37% of the electorate believes that Delegada Patrícia (Pode) should support the PT candidate in this second round, and 34% should support João Campos. Among those who voted for Patrícia Domingos, 49% prefer that he not support any of the candidates; 23% think they should support Marília Arraes, and an equal proportion (22%) believe that their support should go to Campos.

When asked who Patrícia Patrícia will support, 34% indicated that they should support Campos and 31% that they should support Marília. There are 24% who say that the Vamos candidate will not support anyone in this second round, and 11% did not have an opinion.

Among those who intend to vote for Marília Arraes in the second round, 82% would like Mendonça Filho to support the PT, and 69% would also like to count on the support of Deputy Patrícia. The figures are similar for Campos voters in the second round: 81% think that the defeated DEM candidate should support their candidate at this stage of the election and 68% believe that the Vamos candidate should also offer their support to Fields.

Voting decision and going to the polls

Also according to the Datafolha poll, 57% of voters decided to vote for mayor one month after voting in the first round, and the rest, about 15 days before (13%), one week before (9%), the day before (4%) or on election day (15%). Among voters with primary education, 23% decided to vote last Sunday, a rate that drops to 14% among those with secondary education and 7% in the electorate with higher education.

In the lowest income segment, 19% decided who to vote for on Election Day, compared to 10% among those with a household income of two to five salaries and 9% among the richest, with a higher income to five salaries. Among those who voted in Campos in the first round, 17% decided on Sunday, and in the portion that voted in Marília, last-minute voters add up to 11%.

In the portion of voters in Recife who did not vote last Sunday, 25% stopped going to the polls because they were not in the city; 17% were ill or had a health problem; 13% were working and 12% were not interested in the election, among other less-mentioned reasons why they abstained.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Respondents: 924 Recife voters
• When the survey was conducted: November 17-18
• Registration No TRE: PE-06761/2020
• Confidence level: 95%
• Research contractors: TV Globo and newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”
• The confidence level of the survey is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect reality, considering the margin of error, which is 3 points, more or less.

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