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According to official data from the State of São Paulo, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the field has exploded in recent days and amounts to more than 371 affected municipalities. At this rate, the state may have patients infected with the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all 645 cities in late May, health officials said at a press conference on Thursday (7).
According to a statistical survey carried out by the Regional Development Secretariat, the coronavirus reaches 38 new cities in São Paulo every three days. By comparison, in early March, there were seven new cities every three days. In April, the average was 25 new municipalities in the same period.
This accelerated evolution in the interior and the coast occurs in parallel with the fall in the rate of social isolation in all regions.
Less insulation
According to the data registered by the SIMI-SP (Intelligent Monitoring System of São Paulo), in the last 15 days, the isolation rate fell in the interior of São Paulo, from 52% to 47% on average. For the director of the Butantan Institute, Dimas Covas, the commitment necessary to contain the spread of the disease in the state should be 55%.
In the current scenario, the president of the Council of Municipal Secretaries, Geraldo Reple Sobrinho, highlighted the possibility that all municipalities can be reached in a few weeks. “The disease is moving inland. And soon, probably until the end of the month, the 645 municipalities [do estado] there will be cases and even deaths, “said Sobrinho.
Without social isolation, each COVID-19 patient transmits the coronavirus to three other people, according to a study by the Butantan Institute. In the case of adherence to quarantine of 55%, which is the minimum stipulated by the government, the infection rate falls to 1.1 individuals.
Based on the results of another survey that details the spread of the epidemic by the Regional Development Secretariat, it indicates that, at this moment, the cases of COVID-19 are growing four times more on the coast and inland than in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. “Yesterday, 32% of the new cases were in the interior. It shows that there is a very accelerated growth outside the capital,” said the Secretary of Regional Development, Marco Vinholi.
Between April 1 and 30, Greater São Paulo increased from 2.7 thousand to 24.3 thousand cases, with an increase of 770%. In the same period, in the interior, the cases increased from 129 to 4.3 thousand, which represents an increase of 3,302%. Today, São Paulo reaches 39,928 cases across the state, with 3,206 deaths.
The index of adherence to social isolation in each municipality of the state can be accessed here. Check out the full press conference of the São Paulo State Government, broadcast on social media, below:
Source: Government of São Paulo and Uol.
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