Datafolha survey for the second shift in São Paulo: Bruno Covas, 48%; Guilherme Boulos, 35% | 2020 elections in São Paulo

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 48%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 35%
• White / null: 13%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%

Datafolha SP: 49% of voters say France should support Covas in the second round; 38%, Boulos

For the calculation of valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample. The procedure is the same that the Electoral Tribunal uses to disclose the official result of the election. To win in the second round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

• Bruno Covas: 58%
• Guilherme Boulos: 42%

Boulos is numerically ahead of the toucan among the youngest, from 16 to 24 years (46% to 31%) and in the next range, from 25 to 34 years (44% to 38%), in the latter within the range of error. In the other relevant socioeconomic segments of the electorate, Covas has an advantage, or at least is numerically ahead of the adversary, with a greater distance between voters older than 60 (65% to 23%), less educated (59% to 28% ), Catholic (53% to 32%) and Evangelicals (52% to 29%). In the electorate with higher education, there is a tie, with the toucan at the fore (44% to 39%).

In the portion of the electorate that voted in 3rd place in the 1st round, Márcio França (PSB), 38% now intend to vote for the PSDB candidate and another 38% in Boulos. In the group that elected Celso Russomanno (Republicans), the majority (56%) declared their vote in Covas and 27% wanted to vote for the PSOL candidate. Among the voters of Arthur do Val (Patriota), 47% prefer the current mayor, 15% elect Boulos and 29% say they will vote blank or cancel in the second round. Among those who voted for Jilmar Tatto (PT), the majority (72%) already declared their vote in Boulos, and 18% opted for the Covas candidacy.

The poll also asked the degree of decision to vote: 81% of voters are fully determined and 18% say it can still change. See the degree of decision of each candidate:

• Bruno Covas: 82% are fully determined; 18% can still change the vote.
• Guilherme Boulos: 82% are fully determined; 17% can still change the vote.

Knowledge of the candidate number

The number of the chosen candidate is known to 65% of the people of São Paulo. Of the total sample, 28% said they did not know the candidate’s number, 5% did not know how to cancel and 3% reported the wrong number. See the percentage per candidate:

• Bruno Covas (PSDB): 66% know (correct mention) and 34% do not know (3% incorrect mention and 31% do not know the number).
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 65% know (correct mention) and 35% do not know (3% incorrect mention and 32% do not know the number).

Reasons for not voting in the 1st round

The poll also asked voters who did not vote in the first round for what reasons they did not attend. See the percentages:

• Health / was sick: 21%
• Lack of interest in elections / candidates / had no candidate: 19%
• Travel / out of town: 18%
• Voter registration lost / title suspended: 11%
• Worked / worked on the day: 10%
• The polling place is too far / distance: 6%
• Pandemic / fear of pandemic / attention to pandemic: 5%
• I was with Covid-19: 2%
• Other reasons: 10%
• They don’t usually vote: 2%
• I don’t know: 1%

Voting decision moment in the 1st round

The poll also questioned when the voter decided to vote for mayor in the first round. See the percentages:

• At least one month before the elections: 56%
• 15 days before the elections: 14%
• One week before the elections: 12%
• On the eve of elections: 5%
• On the day of the election: 12%
• Other answers: 2%

See the percentage per candidate:

Bruno Covas: 58% at least one month before the elections; 14% fifteen days before the election; 12% one week before the elections; 4% on the eve of the elections; 12% on the day of the elections; 1% other answers.

Guilherme Boulos: 64% at least one month before the elections; 14% fifteen days before the election; 13% one week before the elections; 4% on the eve of the elections; 5% on the day of the elections; 1% other answers.

Márcio França: 56% at least one month before the elections; 15% fifteen days before the election; 12% one week before the elections; 3% on the eve of elections; 13% on the day of the elections; 1% other answers.

Celso Russomanno: 54% at least one month before the elections; 20% fifteen days before the election; 7% one week before the elections; 6% on the eve of elections; 13% on the day of the elections; 0% other answers.

Jilmar Tatto: 55% at least one month before the elections; 10% fifteen days before the election; 5% one week before the elections; 13% on the eve of the elections; 16% on the day of the elections; 0% other answers.

• A survey was conducted between November 17 and 18 and 1,254 people were heard in the city of São Paulo.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less;
• Who was heard: 1,254 voters in the city of São Paulo;
• When was the survey conducted: November 17-18, 2020;
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-03437/2020
• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”;
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

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