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RIO – This is a continuity election. At least that is what the first round of Ibope’s investigation points to the prefecture of the 26 capitals of the country, which ended on Friday. Of the 13 cities where the current mayors are trying a new term, in 11 they are the leaders in the ranking of vote intention.
In the match field, the center titles are improving, while in the left field, the PSB has become the main political force so far.
Check out: GLOBO interviews with candidates for the City of Rio
The leadership panorama in the 26 capitals according to Ibope shows that only Marcelo Crivella (Republicans), in Rio, and Nelson Marchesan (PSDB), in Porto Alegre, are far from being at the top, but they may reach an eventual second round , as calculated. technically tied for second place.
Ultimately, candidates for reelection combine a good discharge between excellent / good and are in the mind of the voter, since they score well in the spontaneous question, the one in which the voter says, without the interviewer presenting them to the names of the candidates.
Experts have said that the pandemic has helped mayors increase visibility. Representatives who have come out of the most critical period of the health crisis will have a harder time campaigning. In addition, they formed the largest coalitions in an election with a record number of candidates. In other words, the vast majority have more time on radio and television, as well as greater access to the party fund.
Some, however, face the challenge of having a high rejection, which can weigh on the second round. The absence of debates on television in most cities and the short campaign campaign favor the candidates for re-election. to neophytes. Out of the limitations that the Covid-19 pandemic caused in street campaigns. There is still the fear of taking a chance on the “new”, unlike the 2016 and 2018 elections.
Check out: GLOBO interviews with candidates for the City of Rio
DEM strengthened
The most comfortable scenario is in Belo Horizonte (MG), where Mayor Alexandre Kalil (PSD) would be elected in the first round if the vote were today. According to Ibope, it figures with 59% of the voting intentions of voters. In addition, his management is rejected only by 13%.
Another that presents an election in the first round is Gean Loureiro, in Florianópolis (SC). In addition to having 44% of the voting intentions, it has a popularity balance of 49 points, with 59% of good or good and only 9% of bad or very bad.
Loureiro is one of the five DEM politicians in the leadership of the capitals, a party that comes out as the protagonist in the first round of the investigation. Despite the leadership of the MDB, with six candidates at the top, the DEM appears in the isolated leadership in four capitals and in another it is in a technical tie. Its long-time alliance partner, PSDB, is leading the way with four candidates.
If the center has MDB, DEM and PSDB as the main forces in the photograph at the moment, the left sees PSB occupying space in the progressive field. In nine capitals, subtitle candidates like PSB, PT, PDT, PSOL and PC do B are at the top of the polls. Of these, five have a pessebista at the head.
It is more than double that of the PT, which opted to launch isolated candidacies in half of the country’s cities to “regain prestige,” according to former President Lula.
Only in two capitals – Vitória, with former mayor José Coser, and Fortaleza, with federal deputy Luziane Lins – does the party appear in one direction, but technically tied with other candidates. And in the main capitals of the country, the PT skates.
In an interview with Época magazine last week, Márcia Cavallari, general director of Ibope Inteligência, affirmed that she identifies in the polls the damage of the electorate against the PT. Márcia says that it will not yet be in these elections where the PT will be able to recover in terms of image, after the debauchery at the polls in 2016.
In the case of the PT, political scientists affirm that the “Lula” factor can make a difference, although this is not a choice of the “godparents.” In some cases, it may be the only opportunity to rally voters to reach a possible runoff. Even if that means eliminating part of the electorate. In the case of São Paulo, two out of every five voters. In São Paulo, PT Jilmar Tatto’s PT member oscillated positively in the poll published on Thursday, rising to 4% in voting intentions. In the first poll, published on October 8, it was only 1% in the poll.
However, the support of the former president may not guarantee success. In Rio, the PT Benedita da Silva maintained the voting intention of 7% between the two polls of the institute. The same happened in Recife, with Marília Arraes maintaining 14% between the two polls, and in Belo Horizonte, where former federal deputy Nilmário Miranda fluctuated from 2% to 1%.
There is no shortage of money in the party’s pocket to spend on campaigns, one of which will receive more funds from the special multimillion-dollar campaign fund, together with the PSL, the latter absent from any top in the race for mayor of the 26 capitals of the country. Therefore, if the bet is on polarization, everything indicates that it is far from being repeated.
