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SÃO PAULO – The Expanded National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose to 0.64% in September compared to August, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) showed on Friday (9). This is the highest one-month result in September since 2003 (0.78%).
The number was also higher than expected by the market. The median projection of the economists consulted by Bloomberg was an increase of 0.54% in the monthly comparison, compared to a previous figure of 0.24%, and an increase of 3.04% in the monthly comparison.
In the year, the indicator accumulated an increase of 1.34% and, in 12 months, 3.14%, above the 2.44% observed in the immediately previous 12 months. In September 2019, the variation had been -0.04%.
The greatest variation (2.28%) and the greatest impact (0.46 pp) in the index for the month came from the Food and Beverages group, which accelerated in relation to August (0.78%). There were increases in another six groups, with an emphasis on Articles of residence (1.00%), Transportation (0.70%) and Housing (0.37%). The Clothing group, after four months of decline, also advanced (0.37%), contributing 0.02 pp to the September result.
On the side of the drops, the highlight was Health and personal care (-0.64%), with an impact of -0.09 pp. The other groups were located between the decrease of 0.09% in Education and the increase of 0.15% in communication.
The acceleration in the Food and beverages group (2.28%) was mainly due to food for domestic consumption, whose prices rose 2.89% compared to August. Among the largest variations are soybean oil (27.54%) and rice (17.98%), which accumulate highs for the year of 51.30% and 40.69%, respectively. Together, the two elements contributed 0.16 percentage points to the September IPCA.
The prices of other important products also rose, such as tomatoes (11.72%), long-life milk (6.01%) and meat (4.53%). In autumn, onion (-11.80%), potato (-6.30%), garlic (-4.54%) and fruit (-1.59%) stand out.
Food outside the home, which had fallen 0.11% in August, rose 0.82% in September, influenced by the high prices of snacks (1.12%) and meals (0.66%).
The second largest variation in the index for the month came from Articles of Residence (1.00%), whose increase was mainly produced by the categories TV, sound and computers (1.99%) and furniture (1.10%). The latter, despite the increase observed in the month, accumulates a drop of 8.73% in the year.
Transport prices (0.70%) rose for the fourth consecutive month, although they slowed down compared to August (0.82%). Gasoline rose 3.22% in August, rose 1.95% in September, contributing 0.09 pp
Regarding gasoline, the surveyed locations varied from a 6.04% drop in Salvador to a 4.21% increase in Fortaleza. The prices of diesel (2.47%) and ethanol (2.21%) also rose, while those of vehicular gas fell 3.16%.
Also in Transportation, another highlight was air fares, with an increase (6.39%) after four consecutive months of negative variations. On the negative side, the fall of 2.73% in voluntary vehicle insurance stands out, which accumulates a fall of 11.86% in the year.
In Housing (0.37%), the greatest impact on the index for the month (0.02 pp) came from bottled gas, whose prices rose 1.61%. The greatest variation came from brick (4.67%), which accumulated an increase of 22.32% in the year. Also noteworthy is the increase in the water and sewerage rate (0.56%), due to the 3.40% readjustment of São Paulo rates (1.91%), in force since August 15, and the drop in gas channeled (-0.85%), due to two reductions: in Curitiba (-6.39%), a reduction of 8.88% as of August 19; and Rio de Janeiro (-0.54%), 5.16% less on August 1.
Still in Housing, electricity (0.07%) had a slight increase in September, with variations ranging from a fall of 1.76% in Belo Horizonte to a 3.41% increase in Campo Grande, where the rate of Increase in PIS / COFINS. Also noteworthy are the readjustments of 5.93% in Vitória (0.40%) and 2.86% in Belém (-0.09%), both in force since August 7. In São Luís (-0.72%), there was a reduction of 0.31% in rates, since August 28.
The Clothing group (0.37%) rose in September, after the 0.78% drop observed in August. Footwear and accessories (0.56%) and men’s clothing (0.58%) contributed to this, both with an impact of 0.01 pp. Jewelery and jewelery (1.22%) continued to increase, although there was a slowdown compared to the previous month (2.32%). The only item in decline was women’s clothing (-0.11%).
The fall (-0.64%) and the negative contribution (-0.09 pp) of the Health and personal care group were the most intense in the September IPCA. This is due to the health plan item (-2.31%), which contributed -0.10 pp. On August 21, on the occasion of the XVI Extraordinary Meeting of the Collegiate Council, the National Complementary Health Agency (ANS) decided to suspend until the end of 2020 the readjustments of the health plans. As a result, all the corresponding factor in advance in May, June, July and August, related to the adjustment that would be announced in July of this year, was discounted in the September IPCA-15 and replicated to the September IPCA, as provided in technical note 03/2020.
The indices of the 16 surveyed regions increased in September. The lowest result was found in the metropolitan region of Salvador (0.23%), due to the drop in gasoline prices (-6.04%). The highest index was registered in the municipality of Campo Grande (1.26%), due to the increase in meat (6.63%), gasoline (2.69%) and electricity (3.41%).
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