Covid-19 deaths in SP doubled in 15 days and could reach 10,000 by the end of May; government attributes worst to isolated fall | Saint Paul

According to spokespersons for the Coronavirus Contingency Center, the loosening of the insulation, seen from the second week of April, could lead to the state arriving in late May with up to 10,000 deaths caused by the disease. As of this Friday, 3,406 deaths have been registered, 210 of them in the last 24 hours (see more in the charts below)

In the last 15 days, the bed occupancy rate in the ICU increased 22% in the state of São Paulo and it was 57.7% on April 24 for the current 70.5%. In Greater São Paulo the the increase was 16%: the capacity of the beds was 76.9% on April 24 for the 89.6% verified this Friday (8).

In the same period that the ICUs were filled, the the isolation rate always remained below 50% from Monday to Fridayexcept on holidays or amendments. Adherence to quarantine began to decline systematically from the second week of April.

From March 24, when quarantine was decreed, until April 8, the rate was never below 50%, on any day of the week. After April 8, the index only crossed the 50% barrier on holidays, amendments, and weekends.

The drop in isolation and the increase in the occupation of the ICU accompany the increase in confirmed cases and deaths caused by Covid-19 in the last 15 days. The deaths grew 111% in the last 15 daysthat is, the total number of deaths more than doubled in the two-week period. The confirmed cases increased 123% since April 24. The increase was even greater in the interior and on the coast, where the disease is spreading four times faster than in the capital.

Experts estimate that the occupancy rate of almost 90% in the metropolitan region triggers a warning signal for a possible collapse of the system. The increase in bed occupancy in the capital occurred despite the increase in the total number of beds available in the ICU. In the city of São Paulo alone, three field hospitals were created. At the Hospital das Clínicas, 100 new beds were added in the ICU. At Emílio Ribas, there are at least 20 new ICUs in operation. The city also added such beds in municipal hospitals, such as Bela Vista, in the central region.

These three variables are conditions of the state government to determine the gradual reopening of the economy: there must be isolation above 55%, ICU occupation below 60%, and a sustained reduction in Covid-19 cases for at least Two weeks for the quarantine becomes more flexible, announced the Governor’s team this Friday (8).

11,000 deaths in late May

According to Dimas Covas, director of the Butantan Institute and current coordinator of the fight against Covid-19 in São Paulo, it is projected that the state will have 9,000 to 11,000 deaths and 90 to 100,000 confirmed cases by the end of May, if the isolation rate is around 55%.

It also says that the increase in recent days should be repeated in the coming weeks because any measure takes approximately two weeks to be reflected in official data. This is because the first symptoms of the disease can take up to 14 days to appear after initial contact with the virus. There is also a delay for the diagnosis to be made with a laboratory examination and for this case to be officially notified.

“These cases today are a photograph of the past, two or three weeks ago, which is the time it normally takes to register. We could not change this curve with the measures we took today, this is already underway. We will begin to have the power to change the curve after two weeks, ”said Dimas Covas at a press conference this Friday (8).

In an interview with GloboNews this afternoon, Governor João Doria does not deny that a collapse of the public health system in the state of São Paulo is possible. “Not at the moment, it is under control, but it is possible. I have to admit and tell the truth in all transparency: if we have a marked growth of the virus in the interior and on the state coast beyond what we already have in the capital this [colapso] it could happen, “said the governor.

He took the opportunity to accuse the federal government, to whom he attributed the lack of equipment such as masks and respirators in São Paulo.

“One more reason for the Ministry of Health to answer the calls made by São Paulo to satisfy the need with beds, with PPE and also with respirators. We still have another challenge, which is enough manpower to provide care, with doctors, nurses and paramedics, “added Doria.

Another data that concerns the state government is the contagion rate, which shows how many people are infected, on average, by each patient with coronavirus. According to Dimas Covas, from Butantã, this rate should be less than 1 to stabilize the spread of the virus in the state.

“The initial contagion rate was around 2.9. An infected individual who produces up to three secondary infections. After the adoption of the measures, with 55% social exclusion, this contagion rate was reduced to 1.16. Ideally, the social distance should be around 70% because then we would have a contagion rate below 1, and with that the epidemic would stabilize and begin to fall, “he said on Friday.

“Right now, what cannot happen is that this rate of contagion increases, and it will inevitably increase if social isolation begins to decrease,” he added.

The state government announced on Friday that, in addition to social isolation, the occupation of the ICUs and the new confirmed cases will also be criteria for announcing the reopening of trade in São Paulo.

According to the Covid-19 contingency committee, there must be isolation above 55%, ICU occupancy below 60%, and a sustained reduction in Covid-19 cases for at least two weeks for the quarantine to relax.