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The lucky numbers in today’s Joker draw are: 3, 8, 14, 17, 41 and Joker number 15
According to OPAP agents, many players choose variable systems. But which is the best, always based on probability?
Code 45: Selected numbers 7, columns 5, cost 2.50 euros.
Chances: 23.8%
Code 35: Selected numbers 8, Columns 6, Cost 3.00 euros.
Chances: 10.7%
Code 34: Selected numbers 9, Columns 9, Cost 4.50 euros.
Chances: 7.1%
Code 25: Selected numbers 9, columns 30, cost 15.00 euros.
Chances: 23.8%
Code 24: Selected numbers 10, columns 14, cost 7.00 euros.
Chances: 5.55%
Code 23: Selected numbers 10, columns 51, cost 25.50 euros.
Chances: 20.24%
Code 15: Selected numbers 11, columns 22, cost 11.00 euros.
Chances: 4.76%
Code 14: Selected numbers 12, columns 38, cost 19.00 euros.
Chances: 4.8%
Code 13: Selected numbers 13, columns 54, cost 27.00 euros.
Chances: 4.2%
Code 12: Selected numbers 15, Columns 118, Cost 59.00 euros.
Chances: 3.93%
Conclusion: strictly based on odds, the best systems are 45 and 25 with odds 23.8%.
But what are the real chances of being the final winner?
Next, mathematicians Charalambos Filippidis and George Papachristou will analyze the chances of success of OPAP’s well-known Joker game according to the classic definition of probability (according to Laplace).
According to the previous definition, we assume that all the columns are equal and that there are no exogenous factors that can affect the result (for example, the weight of the bead).
We can find the chances of catching only the fifth, losing the Joker as follows: The chances of catching the first number are from 5 to 45, that is, 11%. The chances of catching the second number are 4 to 44, that is, 9% (we put 4 in the numerator because we believe that we have already caught the first number, so one of the five we have bet has left.
Also, since the draws do not reposition the balls in the lottery, we put a denominator 44 because a number has already been drawn, so 44 numbers are now playing.) The chances for the third are from 3 to 43, that is, 7%. For the fourth from 2 to 42, that is to say, 4.7% and for the fifth from 1 to 41, that is, 2.4%.
To find the probability of catching the five numbers together (committed probabilities) we multiply the previous probabilities and it is 0.000000818492, that is, 0.000081% or 0.81 probabilities in 1,000,000.
And that without the extra Joker. If we want to take into account the Joker which is from 1 to 20, then the chances of catching 5 + 1 playing a simple card are 0.000004090755%, that is, around 4 chances in 100,000,000!
So one has to play 12,222 cards of different combinations, to have about a 1% chance of winning a simple 5ari. Since each column without a system costs 50 minutes, it must cost € 6,111. If you are interested in having a 1% chance of winning 5 + 1, you must play 244,351 tickets of different combinations at a cost of € 122,175.5.
Also, if someone wants to have a 100% chance of winning the 5ari (without a system always), they have to spend € 610,880 on 1,221,759 simple cards of different combinations and if they want to have a 100% chance of winning the 5 + 1 , you have to spend € 12,217,590 on 24,435,180 different tickets.
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