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The Brexit transition period ended for the British on New Year’s Day 2021. For the fifth time, a British government dragged the promise of a “global Britain” into a new year without fulfilling it. So the country is doing it with Brexit like many people on New Year’s morning: where, even this year at least some, fireworks broke out and high resolutions were carried out, disappointment followed as daylight fell. It seems a bit messy and projects that are too ambitious are being cut down to significantly smaller milestones.
According to the Foreign Office, the transformation from an EU member state to “global Britain” means “investing in global relations, upholding the rules-based international order and presenting Britain openly and confidently on the world stage.” According to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the country will flourish as a “prosperous free trade nation” to an almost unimaginable degree.
So far not much has been accomplished. So far, the promises have been offset by the fact that the British have given up their current access to the world’s largest free trade zone, completely unnecessarily, as opponents of Brexit are discovering. The last-minute deal with the European Union, which was finalized on Christmas Eve, may prevent the worst. Still, trade is now more complicated for the British. Their dependence on the EU is significantly greater than the other way around. So far, the British government has failed to show any individual “much more advantageous” agreements with other industrialized nations.
Britain has good prerequisites to assert itself: as the world’s fifth-largest economy, as the core of the 54-nation Commonwealth, and as one of the five nuclear powers with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, the country it has a privileged position. I already had all this as a member of the European Union.
2021 offers British diplomatic opportunities
Furthermore, the established position is based on historical advantages in many respects. The further into the past, the more Britain has to work on its future role in the world. The British will have several opportunities for this in 2021. In the new year they will assume the presidency of the G7 and thus lead the club of the largest democratic industrialized nations. In this role, Britain would like to invite Australia, India and South Korea and give the association additional weight compared to other authoritarian great economic powers, notably China. If Britain laid the groundwork for a future G10, the country would have achieved a great creative act on the world stage.
In addition, Great Britain hosts in November another of the most important diplomatic events of the year, the UN climate conference COP26 in Glasgow.
But even if Britain can continue to participate in the greats of world politics, its influence as a single state will be less in many areas. The country will have to align itself with other larger economic powers: Even in negotiations with the EU, Prime Minister Johnson had to give up all ambitions not to adhere to its labor, social and environmental standards in the future. It will be similar with other negotiating partners, and the more important the other party, the less bargaining power the British will have.
Another factor that further complicates subsequent negotiations is that the British government has turned out to be a very unreliable partner in negotiations with the EU. The Prime Minister’s twists, omissions and falsehoods have almost become routine and will have a signal effect for future business partners.
Even the Brexit campaign before the decisive 2016 referendum was based on falsehoods about EU funds. And in the next four and a half years, almost all the deadlines passed when London switched between threatening gestures and pointed the way to Brussels. The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, finally concluded that, when dealing with the British government, “trust is good, but the law is better.”
Johnson proved that even the written word and signature of the prime minister are no guarantee of reliability in his attempt to unilaterally change the existing exit agreement for his own benefit. All of this gives future negotiators a reason not to trust the British state. Because the best trade agreement is useless as long as its implementation is questionable.
With the end of the Brexit transition period, 2021 will be a test for Brits to see how serious they are with their own projects and how ready they are to turn big words into action. Prime Minister Johnson will have to work hard for the British to achieve the promised “freedom”; To do this, you will have to present yourself as a more reliable negotiating partner than you have been up to now.
