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Stock markets have long recovered from their lows, despite economic data getting worse. The best example is Lufthansa. How does that come about?
The term “free fall” is currently booming. There is unprecedented misery in the export expectations of companies, the business climate and consumer researchers. Only an economic sector is miraculously saved from this at this time. That is the stock market.
The “Free Fall Sezanorio” leaves shareholders completely cold right now. Alone: the most capitalist of all the institutions of capitalism is in no way governed by the belief in the superiority of the market, on the contrary. It is the belief in the state and in the central banks that drives the courses.
Since the lows in mid-March, stock indices around the world have rebounded strongly. About half of the losses have already been offset, and only occasionally stock buyers become a little uneasy – if, for example, a drug fails in a clinical trial that was expected to help crown patients.
Lufthansa’s share increases despite poor prospects
Or if unemployment claims go too high. But these are temporary fears. Soon after, stocks are bought as if companies are getting the richest orders, the best prices for their products, the prospect of bigger profits.
Lufthansa is currently one of the most impressive examples of strange oversights. The group is doing so badly that, at best, their own money will last a few months. Most employees work short time and layoffs are being prepared.
The fleet is on the ground and costs money and fees even in parking lots, which the company will soon no longer have. Prospects are poor. Until business people and individuals can resume their old travel behavior, they still have to spend a year in the country.
Central banks buy everything there is to buy
What does the price of the bag do? It’s been going back up for a few days. The shareholder is sure that sooner or later the German state will become a partner. And the lame duck becomes a real crane again. Because the state will not come out of that soon.
It will not bankrupt the company. When in doubt, you will even subscribe to the capital increases necessary for Lufthansa to take off again. The mega bet on politics drives the courses, nothing more.
States are one, central banks are the other big players. They are currently buying everything that can be bought to stabilize the economy. The major central banks of the United States, Europe, Japan, Britain and China are said to have already spent more than $ 5 trillion to keep the economy from tarnishing.
Deflation risk is growing
Because: in the coming weeks and months, it will be possible for the lawsuit to work again. Otherwise, despite huge public debt, the risk of global deflation is growing.
Investors suspect that bankers will not allow a real collapse in the stock market. So they sail happily through the calm in the stream of great promises.
It may work fine, but you don’t have to. Skeptics refer to the collapse of the stock market in October 1929, followed by the great depression of the world economy. In the winter of 1929, stock prices recovered quite well from the decline a few weeks earlier.
But in the coming years, the stock exchanges suffered a real disaster. At the lowest point of decline, the Dow Jones Index was worth almost as much as when it was founded in 1896.
Shareholders like third parties laughing?
Sure: Central banks and governments have learned from the global financial and economic crisis. No one talks about saving an economic depression and exacerbating the crisis anymore.
But it can hardly be transmitted that in the end the shareholders will be the winners of this crisis. At the latest when invoices for this crisis are written, shareholders will also have to pay: either because prices will collapse at some point. Or because states and central banks collect the money.
Ursula Weidenfeld is a business journalist in Berlin. Together with t-online.de and the Leibniz Association, she produces the podcast “Knowledge of the soundtrack “.
