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Saturday 19 December 2020
“Most likely outcome”
No-deal Brexit could soon become a reality
Negotiations between the British and the EU drag on. But time is running out: in less than two weeks, the UK will also leave the domestic market. But then what? A trade deal now seems increasingly unlikely, as insiders say. There is the threat of a no-deal Brexit.
Britain and the EU continue to negotiate a Brexit trade pact under high pressure. The talks remain difficult, as has been heard in negotiating circles. “The most likely outcome” is currently a no-deal, he said. “We will flip every stone so a deal takes off.” But there are still “important open questions” on fisheries and subsidies. “Negotiations continue, but we are still very far apart.”
The pressure is great, because the European Parliament has set a final deadline for Sunday night. By then, a full business contract should be available, otherwise MPs would not have enough time to examine. EU negotiator Michel Barnier warned on Friday that there were only “a few hours” left for a deal. However, the negotiators had previously missed several deadlines. More recently it was said, especially in London, that the only deadline was December 31st. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly expressed skepticism that both sides still reach an agreement.
Observers of the tough negotiations reported on Twitter that the EU could take a step over London on the controversial fisheries issue. Barnier is said to have offered that the Community would reimburse the British for 25 per cent of the value of the fish caught by EU fishermen in British waters. That would be significantly more than has been discussed so far, but not as much as London demands. A European fishermen’s association then warned that the EU should not mislead the industry.
Both sides are also preparing in the event that negotiations fail and tariffs and other trade barriers between the UK and the EU come into effect on January 1, 2021. A transition phase ends then. Britain already left the EU at the end of January, but will not leave the EU internal market and customs union until the end of the year.
The British are “ill-prepared”
The British government was ill-prepared, however, it criticized Parliament’s Brexit Committee in London. Decisions were made “too late” and communication with the companies was “spotty at best,” according to a report. The police could be forced to use “slower and more cumbersome” systems; it was “unlikely” that an agreement to replace the European arrest warrant would be in effect in time.
On Friday, the European Parliament voted for emergency measures in the event of a no-deal Brexit. These are plans for the areas of fishing, air safety, and air and road traffic. The British industry association CBI urged both parties to reach an agreement. An agreement would vastly improve the economic prospects across Europe. Now “brave steps” are necessary.
On the roads heading to the major English Channel port of Dover and the Eurotunnels, trucks have recently been stuck for miles. The reasons are the Christmas business and high demand for medical products in the corona pandemic, but also the increase in many stocks before the end of the Brexit transition phase. Trade associations have been criticizing clogged ports and high freight prices for weeks. Ships have already been turned away at some ports because there was no space to unload cargo.
