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Lord David Frost has an appointment with Michel Barnier this Monday. The two main negotiators want to hold a video conference to find out how the Brexit negotiations will continue. The conversation takes place virtually because Frost said in a video link with Barnier on Friday after the EU summit that “there will be no basis for negotiations in London from Monday.” According to the British government, the European Union is to blame for this. “EU decisions at last week’s summit effectively ended trade talks,” Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove wrote in a guest article for the sunday time. “Getting things back on track requires a fundamental change in EU attitudes and policies.”
The latest speculation: Will Johnson wait for the US election?
Gove thus indirectly renewed the offer of talks from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who told the EU on Friday: “Come here, come with us, if there are fundamental changes in your position.” In his newspaper article, Gove stated that after 45 years of EU membership, Britain was asking for nothing more than a comparable free trade agreement that the European Union had concluded with Canada. The EU has promised to offer us this, Gove wrote, but now it appears that the international community is backtracking at the last minute. Unless this attitude “fundamentally” changes, the UK will leave the EU on “Australian terms”. The British government uses this formulation as a euphemism for a no-deal scenario, because Australia does not have a free trade agreement with the EU. The Australian solution is not his “preferred goal,” Gove said, but his country is “increasingly prepared” for it.
Starting this Monday, the British government is promoting its campaign to prepare citizens and companies for the turn of the year. Until then, there will be a transitional phase in which Britain will remain in the customs union and the EU internal market. Without a trade agreement, customs duties and controls would be introduced from January 1. Gove, who is responsible for the preparations for the no-deal in Johnson’s cabinet, warned Brussels that the failure of the talks would also have disadvantages for the EU: “Without a trade agreement, some costs are unavoidable.” If there is no treaty, the onus falls on the EU heads of state and government, Gove said.
Faced with an imminent no-deal scenario, the UK’s largest business associations called on the government over the weekend to sign a trade deal with the EU. “An agreement can be reached with commitment and persistence,” he said in a statement. Company representatives cautioned that many companies were unprepared for the adverse effects of trade with the EU. “With each passing day, the resilience of companies weakens.” Only when the fear of tariffs and quotas is removed will investment in the UK return.
In the negotiations between London and Brussels, two main points of contention remained open until recently: the catch quotas for EU fishermen in British waters and the so-called level playing field, that is, the requirements of fair competition between the UK and EU companies. In Brussels, October 31 is the deadline for an agreement. On the British side, there is talk again that negotiations could continue until November.
In London, there has been speculation in recent days as to whether Johnson would want to wait for the result of the US presidential election on November 4. If Democrat Joe Biden won against incumbent President Donald Trump, Johnson would be more interested in a deal with the EU. Biden had warned the prime minister not to jeopardize peace on the Irish island with his planned single market law. “We cannot allow the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland, to fall victim to Brexit,” Biden wrote on Twitter. Since then, London has been clear: unlike Trump, Biden is clearly on the side of Ireland, and therefore the EU, on Brexit.
