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It is quite possible that on election night it is still unclear who will be the next president of the United States. And even if it did, President Trump could try to hold onto power. Five scenarios for the days after.
An analysis by Teresa Eder for tagesschau.de
A peaceful and regulated change of power, in a democracy that should come naturally. But the transitional period between the day after the elections and the new president’s inauguration could not this time mark the end of the fight for the White House in the United States, but rather its continuation by other means.
The fear that President Donald Trump will not accept a possible defeat without a fight is by no means unfounded, according to constitutional and political experts. Transfers are only loosely regulated in the US, so there are plenty of loopholes to hamper the process.
The postal vote factor
Due to the corona pandemic, many more voters than usual are likely to cast their ballots by letter this year. Election investigators hope that Democratic voters in particular will seize this opportunity. The closer the contest ends and the more votes are counted after Election Day, the more likely a possible Republican lead (called a “red mirage” by traditional party colors) in a race to catch up with the Democrats ( “blue shift” – “blue shift”) transformed.
The 2018 Congressional election showed how Trump reacts to this dynamic: In Florida, both Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Rick Scott lost their leadership with each additional postal vote counted, only winning against their competitors by a very slim margin by a few few thousand votes. At the time, Trump demanded in tweets that the winner of the election be officially announced immediately because false ballots suddenly appeared: “A correct recount is no longer possible!”
Even when he won the election in 2016, Trump accused his rival candidate Hillary Clinton of foul play. At the time, he claimed that he only got the most votes because three to five million illegal ballots had been cast. During this election campaign, Trump repeatedly refused to promise a peaceful transfer of power in the event of his defeat. So what scenarios are conceivable after November 3?
Scenario 1: Trump admits defeat
In this scenario, the President still has a few months to implement his policy. During this time, he was not only able to forgive himself and try to protect himself from possible legal prosecution after leaving office. He could also fire other high-ranking officials, such as senior immunologist and adviser Anthony Fauci or FBI chief Christopher Wray, with whom he had been extremely dissatisfied during the election campaign. Furthermore, the Trump administration could try to put as many obstacles as possible in the path of the subsequent administration and destroy numerous documents.
Scenario 2: The White House intervenes in the vote count
Trump has repeatedly cast doubt on the correct implementation of the vote by mail during the election campaign. A tight result in an undecided state could lead him to recount votes or refer them to Republican-dominated courts.
There is a precedent for this in recent US history: After the 2000 presidential election (George W. Bush vs. Al Gore), ballots were counted again in Florida due to a very narrow result with a difference of only 537 votes. But before a new result could be announced, the Supreme Court ruled that Bush had won the state election. The name of a high-end clothing brand, the Brooks Brother Riots, a protest organized by Republicans to prevent the Miami-Dade County vote from being re-counted, hints at what 2020 could well be.
Scenario 3: dispute over the electorate
In the election, the “Electoral College” is determined, the body of electors who elect the president of the United States. This system could go to the center of the dispute. If the majorities in one of the contested states change in the days or weeks following the election, both parties could claim the electorate for themselves. This stalemate of so-called grieving voters would have to be resolved in Washington. The official census of the electorate on January 6, 2021 depends on the president of the United States Senate, that is, Vice President Mike Pence. But what decision-making powers it has in addition to counting votes is not in the constitution.
That’s why observers assume that Pence Trump could at least guarantee additional electoral votes, and possibly even a second term in office. It could result in a protracted constitutional crisis.
Scenario 4: Trump does not admit defeat
Trump is not known for giving in without a fight, admitting wrong, or losing. Therefore, it is conceivable that you are not ready to officially acknowledge your opponent’s victory and still leave the White House in January 2021 as planned. Journalist Graeme Wood considers this scenario in “The Atlantic” magazine the most likely outcome, also because Trump could save face in front of his supporters and avoid possible prosecution. In the time between the election and the new president’s swearing in, Trump could either pardon himself as a precautionary measure or hand the business over to his vice president to execute the clemency.
Scenario 5: Trump refuses to leave the White House
The most extreme scenario is that Trump refuses to pack his things and leave the White House until January 20, 2021 after an electoral defeat. Then the new president could ask the Secret Service to physically remove him from the White House.
The military should not be used. Mark Milley, one of the top generals, confirmed to the House of Representatives at the request that his people would not interfere in any conflict related to the elections.
