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2020 U.S. elections
Donald Trump wins, no, but Joe Biden: what the rarely wrong experts say
Every four years, American citizens decide whether a Democrat or a Republican should be their president. The election traditionally begins in the town of Dixville Notch near the Canadian border, because residents have already counted their votes shortly after midnight. The latest results come from Hawaii. The fact that results only come in gradually due to the time difference between individual states is one of several special features that make up the presidential election in the U.S. The two candidates running for election have already imposed themselves on the competitors of his own party in the primary elections. However, on Election Day, voters do not cast their votes directly to candidates, but to voters on their behalf. The number of voters per state depends on its population: from at least 3 voters in sparsely populated states like Montana to 55 in the most populous state in California. It is important to note that a basic principle applies in almost all states: “Winner takes all”, winner takes all. What does that mean? Let’s say a state has 10 voters. One of the candidates receives 70 percent of the votes in that state, the other only 30 percent. Now the winner does not get 7 but 10 voters. The loser comes out completely empty-handed. As a result of this principle, in some states the distribution of the electorate can be anticipated before the vote is cast. That is, in states where a party traditionally has a very large grassroots electorate. Because even if the smallest party catches up: as long as it receives less than half the votes, it will not get a single voter. Other states, however, are wavering and may tip the balance. In other words, states that have voted Democrats and Republicans in the past. Florida is one of those swing states, as they are called. Whether all 29 Florida voters go to Democrats or Republicans can determine the outcome of the election. That is why there is a lot of electoral campaign in the undecided states. There are a total of 538 voters. These form the Electoral Collage. Whoever has at least 270 on his side becomes president.
Looking at the numbers, there is little indication that Donald Trump will be granted a second term. Still, many observers believe in his victory; It is not the first time that his predictions have been correct.
How difficult it is to make predictions about the future was felt by the “New York Times” in the last presidential election. Ironically, the highly reputable newspaper proclaimed Hillary Clinton the winner on Election Day with a nearly 90 percent chance, a bit prematurely, as the authors regret admitting two days later. It wasn’t the only editorial team that had leaned out the wrong window. But what else should they have written? The data situation gave Donald Trump little chance of winning.
Now, four years later, the numbers speak even clearer language: On average, challenger Joe Biden is more clearly ahead of Trump than Clinton at the same time. According to electoral statistician Nate Silber, the incumbent is even less likely to win at eleven percent than in 2016, and in major breakout states like Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Democrat Biden is ahead. Donald Trump is the outsider again. And yet there are a number of experts who predict his re-election, for example:
“Trump wins and clearly”
“The Hill,” a conservative newspaper with an emphasis on Congressional reports
“We predict that President Trump will win the 2020 presidential election, and clearly,” write guest authors Jonathan Jakubowski and Christos A. Makridis. They cite various failures in the polls as the reason. For example, suggestive questions, whose answers tended to Joe Biden. Or the type of survey: different population groups would be reached by landline than by mobile phone. Aside from that, the authors say, Democrats are sometimes overrepresented: “In Pennsylvania, 803,427 more Democrats had registered for the election in May than Republicans. But the gap has narrowed to 700,853 in October. We found similar trends in North Carolina. North and Florida. “In other words: according to Jakubowski and Makridis, the voting numbers are no longer as significant as they were a few months ago.
Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s chief of staff and conservative strategist
Under Bush, Rove was considered a “gray eminence” in the White House. For him, the road to Trump’s reelection is very simple, as he told Fox News: “Assuming the president wins in the same states as in 2016, all he has to do is win in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. He can He has it in Pennsylvania with 280 ten electoral votes more than he needs. If he wins in Wisconsin, that’s exactly 270 and if he only gets Michigan, he gets 276 voters. ” The fact that the incumbent is lagging in polls in all three states does not worry Republican strategists: Reason: Biden’s advantage there is in the range of the usual tolerance for errors. Donald Trump won in all three states by a total of 70,000 votes in 2016.
Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, Washington’s most influential newsletter.
The House editor was one of the few experts who prophesied Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. But he doesn’t believe in his re-election: “On the one hand, Biden is more consistently and clearly ahead of Trump than Clinton. On the other hand On the other hand, there are fewer undecided and third-party voters than the last and third: national polls and party fundraising polls. Local polls are essentially the same, especially in undecided states.
“Trump could win the close race”
Raghavan Mayur, Demonstration Director of “Investor Business Daily / TIPP”
Mayur was also one of the few polls that predicted Trump’s election victory in 2016 with its polls. Four years ago, his projections were also accurate because “they took into account the enthusiasm for candidate Trump,” as he told the Miami Herald. This is important because “enthusiasm drives people to the polls. In polls, apathetic people may recognize a candidate, but tend to stay home.” Enthusiasm for Joe Biden is even less than Hillary Clinton’s, so Mayur. However, his forecast for November 3 is quite cautious: Donald Trump “could” be re-elected, but in any case “the race will be very close.”
Helmut Norpoth, political scientist, developer of the “Primary Model”
Since 1912, since the pre-election system was implemented in the US, the Native German “primary model” has been correct in 25 of the 27 elections, also in 2016. Broadly speaking, Norpoth uses the results of the elections. first primaries as criteria and uses them to calculate the chances of victory. subsequent presidential candidates. For the next election, he sees the possibility of the current Trump being reelected by 91 percent. According to his calculations, he will win 362 of the 538 voters and thus achieve a landslide victory.
Biden sees oracles with an impeccable record
Allan Lichtman, Washington historian
Lichtman also has a near-perfect oracle record. He predicts the outcome of the election using a questionnaire with 14 theses. This asks about the state of mind of the country and the characteristics of the candidates. Using this method, you have correctly predicted all election results since the 1980s. In 2000 you were wrong just because, for once, George W. Bush was a candidate for the US presidency who did not get a majority of votes. say, the “Popular Vote”. Since then, he has only predicted who will win and not how. For November 3, Lichtman chose the next winner: Joe Biden.
Robert Cahaly, head of Trafalgar Group and rebel poll
2016 was a bad year, especially for American polls that hadn’t looked closely at the mood in individual states. While national polls were largely correct, they were wrong in Michigan and Wisconsin, for example. It was the states with whose help Donald Trump became president of the United States. Only Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group had correctly calculated the results there, so observers now pay close attention to their numbers. And the “rebel” does not disappoint: in the important states of Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania, he sees Donald Trump at the helm a few days before the election, unlike most other institutes. The headline will win the nationwide vote, as he told the Wall Street Journal.
Nostradamus, Notorious Forecaster
The British “express” of amusement always uses the inevitable metaphorist Nostradamus to predict the election: at one point in his prophecies there is talk of a “trumpet” leading to “Byzantium changing its laws” – which he always wanted to have meant exactly, the “Express” takes over the interpretation according to which this is an indication of Donald Trump’s electoral victory, which would not be possible under the previous rules.
Quellen: Fox News, NBC, “Wall Street Journal”, Fivethirtyeight, RealClearPolitics, “Express”, “Miami Herald”, Trafalgar Group, Primarymodel.com, “New York Times”, DPA, AFP, “The Hill”. Investors.com, Cook Policy Brief, Allan Lichtman on Twitter
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