[ad_1]
China is recovering from the economic crisis better than the rest of the world. This is fueling a debate in the West that scares many: the pandemic could finally usher in the “Chinese century.”
It was an explosion.
When China and 14 Asian states declared in November that they would create the world’s largest free trade zone, many observers weren’t just surprised. It also didn’t fit his vision of the world plagued by the corona pandemic.
The second wave has been sweeping Europe since the autumn, the number of infections and deaths is higher than in the first. At the end of the year, several countries again suffered a severe blockade, although they wanted to avoid it at all costs. In many Asian countries, however, Corona is a thing of the past. It is true that the signatories of the agreement only met online. But in the midst of the biggest crisis of the 21st century, they sent the message of good humor: We are doing business, more than ever!
A geopolitical victory
The signing of the agreement, which bears the name RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Association), was a geopolitical victory, especially for China. Under Barack Obama, the United States tried to isolate the Asian country with the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) trade agreement. But Donald Trump pulled out of the deal, just three days after taking office. RCEP was a late victory for the People’s Republic over the United States, its greatest geopolitical rival.
But RCEP is not Beijing’s only triumph. China’s economy has remarkably recovered from the pandemic. In the second quarter it grew 3.2 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In the first quarter it had plummeted 6.8 percent compared to the same period last year. The positive trend continued in the third quarter: the Chinese economy grew 4.9 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
According to a forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China will be the only leading economy this year with a growth in gross domestic product (GDP). The specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) estimates that Chinese economic growth will be 1.9 percent by the end of the year. At the end of the year, China and the EU also met basically agreed to an investment deal. Just a few weeks before new US President Joe Biden takes office, this is also a geopolitical victory for Beijing.
The irony: China, the country where the pandemic broke out, is emerging from the crisis better than almost any other.
The new last superpower?
China’s V-shaped economic recovery is fueling one of the great debates of the 21st century: how the pandemic will affect relations between the United States, the only superpower left after the fall of the Iron Curtain, and China, the emerging superpower. . The pandemic is the beginning of a new world order with China at the center, some claim. The United States is no longer the undisputed superpower, but it will find its way back to its former leadership force, especially after the election of Joe Biden, others argue.
Kishore Mahbubani is one of the best known representatives of the “Chinese century” idea. The 72-year-old was in Singapore’s diplomatic service for more than 30 years. Among other things, he was the permanent representative of the city-state to the UN. Since retiring from the diplomatic service, Mahbubani has taught at universities and writes books. Most recently, he wrote the book “Has China Won?” released. The title includes Mahbubani’s opinion as a question. Because actually for him there is absolutely no doubt that China has won against the West.
The pandemic has dramatically accelerated America’s loss of reputation, Mahbubani said by phone in Singapore. “The country that shot a man on the moon is not controlling the pandemic.” The United States, whose scientists and institutions have long been considered the best in the world, looks bad compared to China.
China should keep rising
Corona won’t suddenly redistribute roles, says Mahbubani. But the pandemic is causing China’s gradual rise to continue. “The relative weight has already changed significantly, and will continue to do so.”
The former diplomat accuses the United States of not having a vision of a multipolar world. He believes Washington is disappointed that China has not become a democracy despite its economic rise. And he believes there is a racist dislike of an Asian superpower in America.
But Mahbubani sees the decisive reason for China’s long-term success in this: the country is a meritocracy. Those who accomplish something have opportunities to advance. Rather, he sees the United States as a plutocracy, that is, as a society in which wealth is the prerequisite for participation.
Mahbubani’s views are controversial. He is often accused of lacking morals. When the “Spiegel” asked him in the spring if he considered Beijing’s repression of Muslims in Xinjiang to be a policy worthy of a cultural nation, he evasively replied: “I don’t know.” If you listen to it for a while, you get the impression that you are not so convinced of the strength of China, but rather of the weakness of the United States.
Weight change even before Corona
Gabriel Felbermayr also observes that China, viewed in relative terms, is becoming increasingly powerful. The Austrian has been president of the Kiel Institute for World Economy (IfW) since 2019. But his conclusion is different. He does not believe that this makes the country a new hegemonic power.
When called, Felbermayr points to the unit of GDP in US dollars. Before the pandemic, the Chinese value was around 63 percent of the US level. After Corona, it will probably be more than 70 percent. Corona, therefore, is not a crossroads, but a catalyst. “The geopolitical weights changed even before the pandemic,” he says: “But Corona has accelerated this change.”
According to Felbermayr, China is fast becoming the most important trading partner of more and more countries. This would give the People’s Republic more and more opportunities to assert its interests. He sees the RCEP agreement as an expression of this increased importance. But there are limits to the rise of China. “In relative terms, China has been gaining economic importance for decades. This will probably continue until around 2040.”
But Felbermayr sees the bottleneck for Beijing’s rise in China’s demographics: The country will likely grow old before it gets rich. “And even at the height of power, China’s economic importance will not exceed that of the West.” The Austrians reject all those who proclaim a Chinese world order.
The economist also makes another point: Although China has a flourishing economy, it has little political and cultural brilliance. That is also a limiting factor. “China is attractive as an economic model,” he says, “but not as a socio-political model.”
