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No matter what happens next, Putin has won
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“If Lukashenko increases the pressure, we have to increase the pressure on Lukashenko”
Due to President Lukashenko’s actions against the opposition in Belarus, the EU is examining an extension of the planned sanctions. “We are working on a list of sanctions that should be approved soon,” said Federal Chancellor Heiko Maas.
Even if the West expects a victory for the opposition, the crisis has made Minsk even more dependent on Russia. Even the resignation of dictator Lukashenko would do little to change that. The Kremlin has been in command for a long time.
northAfter three weeks, the political crisis in Belarus is like a stalemate. Protesters in Minsk and the province do not give in to state pressure. In his eyes, President Alexander Lukashenko lost all legitimacy after the rigged elections on August 9, but he is not thinking of giving up. So far he has refused to enter into a dialogue with the opposition.
On the contrary, Lukashenko escalated: he made the military march towards Minsk and protect his residence. The autocrat and his minor son appear armed and in riot gear. But the protesters are apparently not impressed. Lukashenko himself, on the other hand, is getting more and more nervous, often telephoning Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and even planning a visit to Moscow in the coming weeks.
The headstrong autocrat, who often fought with Russia in his 26 years in power, no longer has the reins in hand. But how the crisis in Belarus will end will not ultimately be decided by the courageous opposition. But in Moscow.
Putin made this clear in a recent television interview: If the protests in Belarus become radicalized, Putin will send a “reserve” of Russian special forces to the neighboring country. Putin has watched the events in Minsk long enough and apparently has decided: Lukashenko should stay, although Moscow is very careful to talk about the “state of the Union.” So from his interests in Belarus instead of Lukashenko’s personalities.
Opposition supporters demonstrate in Minsk
Source: AFP
For the Minsk autocrat, however, remaining in power would mean losing his country’s geopolitical independence. The supposedly masterful strategist Alexander Lukashenko has risked everything in recent weeks in which he worked out of fear of the overwhelming power of Moscow following the annexation of Crimea.
Suddenly, Lukashenko was talking to Putin about refinancing the Russian part of Belarus’ foreign debt which amounts to around $ 1 billion. The appearance of neutrality in Belarus, the flirtation with the West, is gone. Lukashenko’s new forced position is far removed from his old distance from the violent border crossings of the “Russian world.”
For example, Belarus has never officially recognized the internationally criticized annexation of Crimea, but that no longer matters. An autocrat who drives armored personnel carriers against tens of thousands of peaceful protesters and poses with a loaded Kalashnikov in his presidential palace, the role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine looks bad anyway.
Lukashenko, who probably wanted to look as iconic as Chilean President Salvador Allende during the 1973 military coup, made a completely different impression in the eyes of his citizens and neighbors. He looked like one of the separatist leaders of eastern Ukraine. But Moscow doesn’t care. After all, Lukashenko represents the pro-Russian course of the country, and that is crucial for Moscow. At the moment, the opposition is not interested in a Western orientation. But who can guarantee that it will continue like this?
Then Moscow can be satisfied. Now the former mediator, who just a few months ago spoke openly of a threat from both east and west directions, sees a danger in Europe of all places. Lukashenko fantasizes about a NATO war of aggression against Belarus and disrupts essential economic relations with neighboring Lithuania.
A few months ago, Lukashenko was glad to be able to import oil from Norway and Saudi Arabia through the Baltic port of Klaipeda, which is partly owned by Belarus. That is why he wanted to reduce dependence on oil imports from Russia. These have been a point of contention between Putin and Lukashenko for years.
Police stop a march in Minsk
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Two days ago, the Belarusian autocrat said that he wanted to “redirect” the flow of goods flowing through Lithuania. In plain English, this means: diversion through Russian ports. Furthermore, in response to the upcoming EU sanctions against him, Lukashenko threatened to quit a lucrative business that has been causing problems for Moscow for years: the re-export of food from the EU to Russia, which is due to the contra -Russian sanctions on Crimea. – Annexation is subject to embargo.
Another sad fact brings Belarus even closer to Russia. The IT industry in Belarus was still one of Lukashenko’s showcase projects last year: highly skilled developers, comparatively low wages and a special IT economic zone near Minsk made possible projects known as the online game “orld of Tanks. ”. Last year, the information technology sector accounted for more than a third of Belarusian exports.
Now, the industry is facing collapse due to Lukashenko’s recurring internet crashes and persecution from IT experts who speak out. More than 2,500 IT developers, managers and investors called on Lukashenko in an open letter to stop the violence against protesters and hold new transparent elections. Russian tech giant Yandex, which also owns Uber’s businesses in Russia and Belarus, evacuated some of its employees from the Minsk office after it was searched by masked specialists.
Another twelve companies want to completely move their offices abroad, about another 60, at least partially, including the alleged maker of “World of Tanks” Wargaming. For international investors, who just a few months ago praised the country as one of Europe’s top tech hubs, the political risks are now becoming unmanageable. New projects are frozen for months or years. As a result, the country is turning to its traditional export industries, such as the export of refined products. After all, you need Russian oil for this, not idiosyncratic IT experts.
