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Today the Brexit deal is likely to be approved in the British Parliament. Hardly anyone has likely checked it carefully. The relief of a deal could soon be followed by disappointment.
By Annette Dittert, ARD-Studio London
This agreement was discussed in Great Britain for more than four years. Friendships were broken and nervous breakdowns in parliament were followed by the final decline in the island’s reputation as a sanctuary. In the end, there is an exhausted country, and this agreement, which was triumphantly hailed by much of the British press as Boris Johnson’s victory over the EU. So far so predictable. But was it really worth it?
On paper, the British have regained the sovereignty that Johnson repeatedly invoked in many areas. As soon as the Court of Justice of the European Union is mentioned, the British will be able to determine their own laws in the future and, in theory, enter into new trade agreements with third countries without having to adhere to EU customs duties. Y: The movement of goods between Great Britain and the European continent will remain duty free for the time being.
Reality can hardly resist the enthusiasm of the Brexiteers
That’s the page. And it sounds so good that even the Brexit hardliners will agree to Johnson’s deal today. Who likes to read annoying analysis from British trade experts who have been tirelessly pointing out since Christmas Eve that this deal is nothing more than an impromptu linking the British much more closely to the European continent than Johnson is admitting publicly currently? Almost nobody. Especially not at Christmas. At least that was certainly Johnson’s calculation, as he delayed the conclusion of this deal until the last minute. Because reality can hardly resist the current victory frenzy of Brexiters.
A reality that Johnson should catch up with very soon. In fact, the links with European social or environmental standards and subsidy rules remain much closer than with other EU free trade agreements. Future disputes will no longer be resolved by the European Court of Justice, but in arbitration tribunals or working groups that have yet to be established. If one party resorts to distortion of competition, the other party can impose trade sanctions. Not automatically, but only with a delay, but still.
The bureaucratic flood of paper as an obstacle to trade
And the great relief generated by the continued duty-free movement of goods will soon give way to a deeper disillusionment. Because as of January 1, British goods can only be exported with a flood of customs papers. Many companies still don’t know exactly what papers they need and where they can get them. And in everyday life, Brexit will also hit the British harder than many wanted to admit: travel to other European countries is limited to 90 days starting in January. If you want to take your pet with you, you need vaccination records like in the 1960s. And studying at EU universities will not be so easy in the future.
Many Brits are just beginning to realize all of this. For small and medium-sized businesses in particular, the bureaucratic avalanche of paper is becoming a growing trade barrier, and sooner or later the Johnson government will also find that closer cooperation with European databases is beneficial for they. In the medium term, it will therefore mean that Britain will continue to negotiate with the EU for an indefinite period of time. Just as Switzerland has been in permanent talks with Brussels since the 1970s, the Brexit referendum will also end as a “neverendum”.
Big business with the US is a long way off
And so, back to the initial question: was it worth it? Yes, Brexit supporters who value the mantra of sovereignty over the well-being of the British economy will exclaim. And then always happy to refer to the future: to all the trade agreements that “global Britain” can now conclude independently with the entire world. The great deal with the United States, which has been invoked over and over again, has likely come a long way with Joe Biden.
And so Johnson has yet to demonstrate the economic benefits of Brexit to his people. It is unlikely that you will be able to do that anytime soon. By even the government’s own calculations, this deal will lead to a significant reduction in gross national product.
At least two Brexit winners
But for whom was this Brexit really worth it? Without a doubt for Boris Johnson himself, who, however, has always been less interested in the process of leaving the EU than in being for him a vehicle in the center of power. What pushed the Conservative party to the right beyond recognition? So be it. What is putting the future of the UK at risk? Does not matter.
Which brings us to another Brexit winner: Scotland’s Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, whose passionate defense of Scottish independence has been fueled by Johnson’s brazen English nationalism. But this is an other history. Also one that will last for many years. Brexit is far from over, not even with this deal.
