[ad_1]
Can the German economy cope with another lockdown, even if it only affects some sectors? Many economists are concerned about the coming months and the dangers of the second crown wave.
The upcoming new crown restrictions have raised fears of a serious setback for the German economy. “The rebound is very likely to slow down significantly,” said the economic director of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Claus Michelsen. Many companies would still have to grapple with the fallout from the spring shutdown and have hardly any financial reserves.
Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer no longer expects the economy to grow by the end of the year if there is a new lockdown. “Instead, we could be happy with a black zero, with the risk of a second sizeable recession,” Krämer told Reuters news agency. “You can’t turn the economy on and off like a lamp without causing massive damage.”
Many jobs threatened
Until now, economists had assumed that economic output would increase in the fall, although not as strongly as in the summer. According to DIW calculations, the increase between July and September was about six percent. In the spring, the economy collapsed almost 10 percent due to the lockdown, more than ever.
The sharp increase in the number of infections and potential new restrictions for the hotel industry and event organizers recently have not only put Germans in the mood to buy less. Companies’ already poor expectations for their business in the coming months were clouded.
The crown crisis has already left its mark on the job market. Despite the massive use of reduced hours, 670,000 jobs had been lost as of August. State development bank KfW fears that more than a million jobs will be lost before the end of the year.
DAX falls below 12,000 points
The new corona wave is also increasingly burdening the stock markets. The DAX stock index collapsed before deliberations by Chancellor Angela Merkel and state prime ministers. Meanwhile, it has dropped more than three percent, for the first time since June, again below the 12,000 meter mark.
Michael Hüther, director of the Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft (IW), warned in the “Handelsblatt” of the consequences of further closure, especially for retailers, hotels and restaurants. The instruments of economic policy in the fight against the recession are “largely exhausted”, said the economist. “It would be wildly naive to believe that the second block is just a repeat of the first.”
In view of the worsening situation in Corona, parts of the economy are asking for new aid from the state. The German Tourism Association (DTV) demanded more support for companies on short notice. “If the situation now worsens to the same extent as before and the industry is almost sent back into lockdown, the improved bridging aid should come into effect immediately from November,” said the association’s manager, Norbert Kunz.
“Culture is relevant to the system”
In Berlin, thousands of people rallied again asking for more support for the event industry. The industry is facing a wave of bankruptcies, the #AlarmstufeRot initiative said. On the posters of the participants was written “Culture is dying” or “Culture is relevant to the system.” The protesters were supported by “Tote Hosen” leader Campino, actor Dieter Hallervorden, opera singer René Kollo and pop singer Roland Kaiser.
