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On February 25, the unit raised its alert level that the coronavirus could become a pandemic in 30 days from WATCHCON 2 – a likely crisis _ to WATCHCON 1 – an impending crisis, according to a US official. That was 15 days before the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic to the outbreak.
At the time of the warning, few coronavirus infections had been reported in the United States. That same day, Trump, who was in New Delhi, tweeted: “The Coronavirus is under control in the United States.” Soon, however, the virus spread throughout the world, making more than 2 million people sick with COVID-19 and killing more than 26,000 people in the United States.
The center generally sends its findings to the defense and health authorities, including the secretary of health. His first warning, on February 25, initially reported last month by Newsweek magazine, was included in the intelligence notes provided to the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the armed forces, but it is not known whether Trump or other White House officials they saw. Several intelligence agencies had included information about the coronavirus in their briefing materials since early January, according to the official, who asked to remain anonymous because he was not authorized to confirm details of the alert.
At least 100 epidemiologists, virologists, chemical engineers, toxicologists, biologists, and military medical experts _ all trained in intelligence _ work at the medical intelligence unit, located at Fort Derrick base in Frederick, Maryland. Requests for interviews of current members were rejected, but former employees described how they examine huge volumes of information for clues to global health events.
“You feel like they are looking for a needle in a bunch of needles,” said Denis Kaufman, who worked with the medical intelligence unit from 1990 to 2005 and again later, before retiring.
Most of the information they study is public, called “open source” material. A local newspaper in Africa may publish a story about an increase in people getting sick and that is striking because there is no mention of the disease in another part of the country. A doctor in the Middle East may raise concerns about a virus on social media, but, unlike organizations like the WHO, the medical intelligence team, part of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), also has access to secret material collected by the 17 United States spy agencies.
The medical intelligence unit can examine intelligence signals and interceptions collected by the National Security Agency (NSA). You can read information that CIA agents collect abroad. The National Geospatial Intelligence Agency can share satellite images and terrain maps to help determine how a disease, such as Ebola and bird flu, could spread among a population.
“Every day, we came to work and read and researched our area looking for anything that was different _ something that might not make sense, whether it be about illness, health care, earthquakes, national disasters _ anything that could affect the health of a nation, “said Dr. Martha” Rainie “Dasche, an African specialist who retired from DIA in 2018.” We started asking questions. We examined everything with a cynical eye. “
The group does not collect intelligence data. It analyzes them and produces medical intelligence assessments, prognoses, and databases on infectious diseases and health risks arising from natural disasters, toxic materials, bioterrorism, and on the ability of certain countries to deal with them. His reports are directed at military commanders, defense department health officials, and scholars, as well as policy makers at the Pentagon, the White House, and federal agencies, especially the Department of Health.
The center was originally in the offices of the Army medical director during World War II, but military leaders have forcibly learned the dangers of disease for troops.
“In the Spanish-American War there were major epidemics of typhus and dysentery,” according to a report written in 1951 at the Brooke Military Medical Center in Fort Sam Houston, Texas. “In World War I there were widespread outbreaks of influenza and malaria. In World War II, there was a high incidence of malaria and hepatitis … in all wars prior to World War II, disease losses exceeded those caused from wounds in combat. “
Today, the team’s successes are reflected in early alerts that prevent disease. That can be difficult if a country that does not report or share information for fear that the news will affect its economy or tourism. Some poor countries do not compile good information. Information from countries trying to play down the severity of an epidemic is unreliable.
Kaufman said huge volumes of information come from China, where the first reports of the coronavirus emerged in Wuhan City, but since the country has an authoritarian government, medical intelligence scholars compile its information locally, not from Beijing.
“In some cases, it is more helpful to collect information from the base, not from the central communist government, but from the localities,” he said. “Someone in Wuhan may be saying, ‘I can’t report this because I don’t want to look bad in front of my boss.’ Or another guy says he can’t talk about avian influenza because his cousin has a poultry market and he doesn’t want to. harm the business. “
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