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Four years after his shock victory, US President Donald Trump appears to be running out of resources. Opinion polls predict a victory for former Vice President Joe Biden.
(Read: Rural support for Trump in key states decreases)
In some Democratic circles, the concept of “sweeping victory” is whispered with glee. It appears that Trump is finally on trial for his performance, especially for his dire response to the coronavirus pandemic. His Republican colleagues have started to turn away from him.
(It may interest you: Biden takes advantage of Trump a few days before the voting)
The president himself, already complaining of rigged elections, seems to be waiting for defeat. And it is too late for him to learn from two of his autocratic and elected demagogue peers, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that they continue to win elections despite presiding over multiple political and economic disasters.
(Read: Economic multilateralism: the other victim of Trump)
Two self-proclaimed outsiders, Erdogan and Modi, also came to political power out of anger and discontent with the traditional political class in their respective countries.
Railing against the corruption and nepotism of the local elites, they won the affection of many marginalized. Like Trump, they connected with the experience lived by millions of people: the feeling of being despised and excluded by the traditional political class and the media.
The greatest asset of the three leaders was this keen sense of reality. It allowed them to renew visions of national greatness, claiming that they could come true once the old elites had been effectively marginalized.
Unlike Trump, however, Modi and Erdogan have diversified their means of self-perpetuation. For one thing, they have been far more successful than the president of the United States in forging new realities for their audiences through conspiracy theories and fake news, helping them avoid a crushing judgment on their performances.
Not only did they dominate digital technology and social media, they also managed to control legacy media through a regime of intimidation that has silenced and marginalized critics. Although he managed to gain control of the Supreme Court and secured the unconditional support of Fox News, Trump could not begin to mimic the strong penetration of Modi and Erdogan in national institutions, from the educational system and television channels to the military. Even Republicans rallied relatively late to Trump.
Modi and Erdogan have long had committed ideological teams working for them. One sign of his success is that Modi even managed to benefit electorally from demonetization, his surprising withdrawal from circulation of almost all banknotes, which damaged the Indian economy long before the pandemic.
Having effectively created a whole new world of perceptions and thoughts, Modi convinced enough Indians that he had done the right thing in his persecution of the rich and corrupt elites.
Although guilty of its poor performance in the early days of the pandemic, Modi’s Hindu nationalist regime recently shirked its responsibility by blaming the virus for the work of jihadists.
For the victims of his mistakes, Modi invokes the Hindu value of sacrifice, arguing that pain and deprivation are the price people pay for national greatness. Erdogan’s public image as a faithful Muslim also helps many devout Turks to identify with him.
Trump faces defeat in part because he cannot draw on a spiritual and ethical tradition (other than QAnon), or appeal to spiritual self-interest. Openly denounces China and criticizes “cultural Marxists”. But the menacing images of the enemy internal and external, indispensable for any demagogue, do not appear to have become an electoral consequence outside of Trump’s voter base, which is made up of whites without college degrees.
What’s more, this base has shrunk in the past four years, part of a long-term demographic decline, and Trump has failed to reach an expanding and politically significant demographic: minorities and college-educated white voters.
In that sense, Modi and Erdogan appear to have mastered the art of compromise better than Trump, continually bolstering their power with cunning coalitions. Although he is an outspoken Islamist, Erdogan is now allied with the Nationalist Action Party, which is secular and ultra-nationalist.
Modi has successfully expanded, often with the help of small regional parties and secular politicians, his influence in states where he previously had little presence.
Modi and Erdogan also continue to benefit from a fragmented opposition. Trump, on the other hand, has struggled with serious political and legal challenges since the beginning of his term. With his many mistakes, he has united a unique and formidable opposition against him, spanning various ethnic / racial groups and socio-economic classes, as well as ideologies ranging from the Green New Deal to the Lincoln Project.
The evil energies of the far-right that Trump unleashed will not fade quickly. But November 3 is likely to expose the remarkably narrow and wobbly platform this stable genius perched for four years.
Bloomberg
