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If Donald Trump is ousted from the White House in the November elections, he will not be the only loser. While many governments are likely to celebrate the end of the less conventional and sometimes most chaotic US presidency of modern times, others will have reason to regret it.
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For the leaders of Turkey, North Korea and Israel, the accounts have been almost completely positive. The removal of Trump would face them immediate challenges. The calculations of countries like China are more nuanced. Still, what the mostly authoritarian winners of Trump’s four years in office have in common is the fear that his departure means the return of a more conventional American foreign policy.
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That could see the United States mending alliances and promoting the universality of values like democracy and human rights, or the fight against climate change.
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“This president welcomes all the bullies in the world,” said Joe Biden, Trump’s contender, at a recent event, as he sought to highlight the political divide.
Kim jong un
No relationship with the United States changed more than that of North Korea under the Trump administration. What began with mutual threats and insults turned into a sometimes strange love affair when Kim and Trump met three times and exchanged more than two dozen letters, showcasing their “mysteriously wonderful” chemistry.
Yet the radically different approach of the United States has also failed to ensure the denuclearization of North Korea. On October 10, Kim unveiled a huge new ICBM that appears to have the ability to launch multiple nuclear warheads.
Biden has said he will not meet if preconditions are not met, making any swift lifting of the sanctions that have pushed North Korea’s economy into its worst recession in two decades less likely.
Mohammed bin Salman
Trump set the tone for his approach to international relations in Saudi Arabia and chose Riyadh for his first overseas visit in 2017.
He was greeted by a huge image of his own face projected on the facade of the palatial hotel where his delegation was staying. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince made important strides, notably Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, his country’s biggest rival.
Trump also offered personal support and vetoed congressional sanctions when MBS, as he is known, was besieged by allegations in 2018 that it had ordered the assassination of a prominent critic of the regime, Jamal Khashoggi.
There have been disappointments for Saudi Arabia, in particular the failure of Trump to respond militarily after a 2019 attack on oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, which the United States attributed to Iran.
Saudi leaders say they are confident they could fight their way through a Biden government.
Still, without Trump, a more traditional US approach to human rights is likely to return and a door could be opened to revive the Iran deal.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Erdogan
If anyone trusts Trump more than MBS for his political protection, it is the President of Turkey. Trump has stood virtually alone between Turkey and the imposition of congressional sanctions over Erdogan’s decision to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense missile system, despite being an ally of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO.
Their personal link allowed Erdogan to persuade Trump to withdraw US troops from Kurdish areas in northern Syria so that Turkey could send its own forces to take control of the area.
Trump made that decision without consulting the Pentagon or US allies in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, including the UK, France, and Kurdish fighters that Turkey considers terrorists.
With the sanctions ready for implementation and Well previously calling on the United States to support the Turkish opposition parties, Erdogan may be the one with the most to lose from Trump’s departure.
Xi Jinping
Trump has been more aggressive toward China than any American president in recent memory, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods and acting to restrict their access to key technologies.
However, Chinese officials have said that, overall, leaders would prefer Trump to stay. Trump shook up the post-World War II alliance system that China sees as a constraint on its geopolitical ambitions, benefiting him considerably.
He also undermined the international stature of the United States by exiting agreements in pursuit of “America first” policies, creating opportunities for the Chinese president to fill the resulting leadership vacuum in everything from trade to climate change.
Beijing’s concern about Biden is that he would try to create a more coordinated international front to deal with China, while maintaining pressure on trade and technology.
Still, China could benefit from a less emotional relationship with Washington if Trump loses, according to Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University. “Do people really want China and the United States to enter a cold war?”
Vladimir Putin
Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 election produced a formal US investigation and a 448-page report. But somehow, Putin hit the jackpot.
In office, Trump has questioned the value of NATO and even the status of countries like Germany as allies, weakening a transatlantic alliance that Russian and Soviet leaders since Joseph Stalin have tried to break apart.
There are many reasons to think that the trend would continue during a second Trump administration. However, Russia’s president has achieved little of the benefits he desired, from lifting sanctions to progress on arms control.
Russian officials see little prospect of progress and less under the Biden Administration. Instead of lamenting the anti-Russian mood, the Kremlin could try to change it, according to Fiona Hill, senior director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council until 2019.
Jair bolsonaro
For the president of Brazil, Trump is a political soulmate. As American opinion polls have tilted in favor of Biden, Bolsonaro has become increasingly concerned about the future of his ties to the White House, according to a senior cabinet member.
Since taking office in 2019, Bolsonaro has changed the Brazilian tradition of a decades-old equidistant foreign policy in favor of automatic alignment with the United States and its allies.
In return, Trump lifted the ban on fresh meat imports, supported Brazil’s proposal to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and signed agreements for cooperation in defense and space exploration.
Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo has said that Brazil would have no problem with a Biden government, but Bolsonaro’s environmental policies would face strong opposition.
Biden has suggested that Brazil could face economic consequences if it does not stop deforestation in the Amazon.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Trump repeatedly broke American precedent to advance the Israeli leader’s nationalist agenda, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the disputed Golan Heights and moving the American embassy to Jerusalem.
Plans to annex parts of the Palestinian West Bank have been shelved, but could be reactivated in a second Trump term. The real payoff came in September, when Trump negotiated normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but there has been a cost: Bipartisan support for Israel in Congress has eroded.
Many Israelis fear their country will face increased scrutiny under the Biden Administration, while security leaders are concerned about the United States’ return to the Iran nuclear deal.
Bloomberg
