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London (CNN) – The UK has identified a potentially more contagious new variant of coronavirus linked to a recent surge in cases in England.
The new mutation is called VUI-202012/01, the first ‘investigational variant’ in the UK in December 2020. While scientists are seeking more information on the variant, its impact is already being felt and dozens of countries have imposed restrictions. to UK travelers.
This is what you should know.
What is a variant and why are officials concerned?
A variant occurs when the genetic makeup of a virus changes. All viruses mutate over time, and new variants are common, even for the new coronavirus.
Like other variants, this one carries a genetic fingerprint that makes it easy to trace, and it turns out that it is now widespread in south-east England. That alone does not necessarily mean that a variant is more contagious or dangerous.
But scientists advising the UK government estimate that this variant could spread up to 70% more than others. Peter Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said Monday that experts “are now very confident that this variant has a transmission advantage” over other variants.
England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty has said the variant contains 23 changes, including 17 key “non-synonymous” mutations.
“These [17] they are the ones that change the protein sequence of one of the viral genes, ”said Jeffrey Barrett, a covid-19 lead statistical geneticist at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in the UK, according to the Science Media Center.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday that these mutations “may influence the transmissibility of the virus in humans,” although it added that more laboratory research is needed.
Scientist Neil Ferguson, a member of NERVTAG, said Monday that the variant may be more infectious for children. There is a hint that [la variante] … Has a higher propensity to infect children, “he told a news conference organized by the Science Media Center (SMC), although he warned that more data was needed. Severe illness due to covid-19 remains relatively rare in children.
The findings have immediate implications for virus control. Higher numbers of cases could put even greater strain on hospitals and healthcare workers just as they enter an already particularly difficult winter period and would ultimately lead to more deaths.
Where did it originate and how was it established?
The new variant is believed to have originated in southeastern England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) says that backtracking, using genetic evidence, suggests that the variant first emerged in England, in September. It then circulated at very low levels until mid-November.
‘The increase in cases related to the new variant came to light for the first time in late November when PHE was investigating why infection rates in Kent (in the south-east of England) were not decreasing despite national restrictions. Then we discovered a group linked to this variant that was spreading rapidly to London and Essex, ”said PHE.
But Sharon Peacock, a professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said scientists did not know whether the mutation had originated in the south-east of England or whether it had been introduced there from elsewhere.
During a press conference Tuesday, Peacock also praised the strength of the UK’s genetic surveillance operation. «If it is to be found [una variante] anywhere, you’ll probably find yourself here first, ”he said. And if this happens in places that don’t have any sequence, it won’t be found at all unless they’re using [otros métodos]».
Whitty said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which have almost doubled in the last week alone.
Some experts have suggested that this new variant could have been amplified due to a superpropagation event, meaning that the current increase in cases could also have been caused by human behavior.
“When we started to see this huge increase, it could have been for many things. Could have been [debido a] changes in behavior, ”Judith Breuer, professor of virology at UCL, said during a briefing on Tuesday.
«[Pero ahora] it is very clear that there is a significant increase in the prevalence of this variant and that this is likely due to the biological characteristics of the variant and, indeed, to the increased transmissibility. ‘
What countries have been affected?
The variant has already spread globally. In addition to the United Kingdom, the variant has also been detected in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia, according to the WHO.
Australia has identified two cases of the variant in a quarantined area in Sydney and Italy has also identified a patient infected with the variant.
A similar but separate variant has also been identified in South Africa, where scientists say it is spreading rapidly along the country’s coastal areas.
Is it the deadliest new variant?
There is no evidence so far to suggest that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, although it is too early to tell.
Several experts have pointed out that, in some cases, mutations in the virus that increase transmissibility are accompanied by a decrease in virulence and mortality rates.
“As viruses are transmitted, those that allow for greater virological ‘success’ can be selected, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This generally leads to higher transmission and less virulence, ”Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told SMC.
Will the vaccines developed against this variant work?
There are no signs yet that current pioneering vaccines won’t work against this new variant, experts and pharmacists have said.
The companies behind the first two vaccines to be licensed in the US, Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna, are testing their vaccines to verify that they are effective against the variant.
The coronavirus has mutated before, and these companies claim their vaccines worked against other variations of the virus.
BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin said he has “scientific confidence” that the current Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine could work against the new variant, but full data will be available in two weeks.
Some scientists in the US have said that this new variant may, to a small extent, undermine the effectiveness of vaccines.
Trevor Bedford, associate professor in the division of vaccines and infectious diseases at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said: ‘You could imagine a modest impact on the efficacy of the vaccine, which would not be good, but I don’t think it will defeat the vaccine”.
Bedford explained that the variant could possibly reduce the effectiveness of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine, which is 95%, but with a “modest effect, not a dramatic effect.”
BioNTech’s Sahin said that the new variant may, however, require countries to vaccinate more populations, raising the bar for herd immunity.
«[Sobre] the issue of herd immunity there is always a discussion about 60-70%, “he said at a press conference on Tuesday. “But if the virus becomes more efficient at infecting people, we may even need a high vaccination rate to ensure that normal life can continue without interruption.”
What steps are being taken to contain the variant?
Large swaths of England, including London and the south-east, are now under strict Level 4 covid-19 restrictions, and British government health experts have suggested that additional restrictions might be required to reject this variant.
Dozens of countries in Europe, the Middle East and the Americas have also announced travel bans for the UK or new testing and quarantine requirements for arrivals to the UK.
The White House is considering requiring UK travelers to submit a negative coronavirus test before arriving in the US, two administration officials told CNN.
In its press release on Tuesday, the WHO issued a reminder of basic measures to reduce the transmission of the virus: avoid close contact with infected people, wash hands frequently and wear a mask.
