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Almost a quarter of the world’s population will not have access to the covid-19 vaccine until at least 2022, according to a study published in The BMJ which warns that the logistical challenges of the global vaccination program against coronavirus will be as difficult as those that the scientific community has faced to develop the vaccine.
A second study published in the same journal estimates that 3.7 billion adults around the world are willing to be vaccinated, highlighting the importance of designing fair and equitable strategies to ensure that supply can meet all demand, especially in those countries. less developed income countries.
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The first study, carried out by researchers from Johns Hopkins University, Maryland (United States), analyzed the stockpiles of vaccines that countries have made even before they were approved by official bodies in Europe and the United States.
On November 15 they had already requested 7.480 million doses, or 3.76 billion treatments from 13 manufacturers of the 48 covid-19 vaccine candidates that are completing (or have already completed) clinical trials.
Half (51%) of these doses will go to rich countries, which account for 14% of the world population and the rest to poor countries, which host 85% of the world population.
If all of these candidate vaccines were successfully scaled up, the total expected manufacturing capacity would be 5.96 billion doses by the end of 2021, with prices between € 4.90 and € 60.8 per dose.
Sandra Lindsay was the nurse who received the first Pfizer vaccine in the United States.
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Up to 40% of the complete vaccine treatments from these manufacturers could be for lower-income countries, although that will depend on the solidarity of rich countries and whether the United States and Russia join in coordinated efforts globally.
However, although these vaccine manufacturers reach their maximum production capacity, at least a fifth of the world’s population will not have access to vaccines until 2022, the study concludes.
The other research, conducted by centers in China, looks at vaccine target populations to help map global fair and equitable allocation strategies.
So, warn that the final number of recipients of this vaccine will depend and will vary greatly depending on the geographical region, vaccination goals (such as maintaining essential basic services, reducing severe COVID-19, and halting virus transmission), and the impact of reduced global demand.
Although both studies are based on estimates, the authors stress that they are sufficient to “illustrate the scale and great complexity of the manufacture, purchase, distribution and administration of vaccines to meet global demand and do so equitably across countries and populations” .
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Margaret Keenan, the first patient in the world to receive the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine against the coronavirus.
In addition, in an editorial published in the same journal, Jason Schwartz, from Yale University, points out that many countries have already demonstrated their commitment to equitable global access to covid-19 vaccines by purchasing through the COVAX Service. , which allocates part of the payment to vaccines for the poorest countries.
However, he warns that we will have to be vigilant “to ensure that such aspirations are realized in the coming months and years” because the satisfactory and equitable distribution of vaccines “requires unprecedented global coordination and a sustained commitment of resources – financial, logistical and technicians – from high-income countries. “
In that sense, he points out that the United States’ participation in vaccination efforts “would be invaluable in ensuring that all the world’s populations have access to covid-19 vaccines that will ultimately help end this devastating global health crisis, “he recalls.
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EFE
