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Reflections of a Professor of Geography at the University of California, Los Angeles, and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for the book “Arms, germs and steel.”
COVID 19 is devastating the world. It is in the process of infecting many (perhaps most) people, killing some, closing normal social relationships, stopping most of the international passenger traffic and causing serious damage to economies and trade. What will the world be like in a few years, when this serious crisis comes to an end? Many take it for granted that vaccines will be developed to protect us against COVID-19 in a short time. Too bad this perspective remains very uncertain: the ability of vaccines to prevent disease is not the same for all. (We recommend more articles in the Thinkers series.)
Some vaccines (for example, against smallpox and yellow fever) provide protection that lasts for decades or a lifetime; But flu shots protect for less than a year. And there are still no vaccines against malaria and AIDS, even though enormous efforts have been invested in their development. Since the influenza virus frequently mutates, or the proportion of its various strains varies, a new vaccine must be developed every year. And while the protection of vaccines against polio and smallpox is universal, in the case of influenza and cholera the vaccine only protects about half of those who receive it. That is why it is impossible to predict the effectiveness of the long-awaited vaccine against COVID-19.
But suppose we had an effective vaccine in a short time. What effects will that have on the world? Scientists from many countries – China, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and others – are in a race to develop a vaccine. We can imagine three scenarios: the worst possible, the best possible, and all the variations in between.
There are already many signs of an incipient worst-case scenario. Even if some country succeeds in developing a vaccine, tests it and determines that it is effective, it is impossible to manufacture and distribute overnight 7.7 billion doses for the 7.7 billion people of the world. At first, the supply will be tight. Who will get those coveted first doses? Common sense tells them to be reserved for medical personnel, because all of us need these people to administer vaccines and take care of the sick. Outside of medical personnel, the wealthy and influential will likely find ways to buy doses before the poor without influence.
But that form of selfishness only counts for dose allocation within the first country to develop an effective vaccine. It is also foreseeable that there will be international selfishness: the country that develops a vaccine will undoubtedly prioritize its own citizens. It has already happened with masks: a few months ago, when they were scarce, some shipments from China reached Europe and fights and price wars were unleashed in the competition between countries to ensure access to supplies. Worse still, the first country to develop a vaccine may deny it to political or economic rivals.
But a little reflection is enough to understand that a selfish national policy is suicidal. Even in the immediate future, no country will gain lasting protection against COVID-19 by eliminating it within its borders. In today’s globalized world, the disease will re-enter from other countries that have not eliminated the virus.
It has already happened to New Zealand and Vietnam, where after stopping local transmission with strict measures, the return of travelers from other countries continued to import new cases. This allows a key conclusion to be drawn: no country will be safe from COVID-19 until everyone is. It is a global problem that demands a global solution.
That for me is good news. We have other global problems that also demand global solutions, including climate change, global resource depletion, and the destabilizing consequences of international inequality in a globalized world. Just as no country can stay free from COVID-19 forever simply by eliminating the virus within its borders, no country can protect itself from climate change simply by reducing its own dependence on fossil fuels and emissions of greenhouse gases. Atmospheric carbon dioxide, like COVID-19, does not respect political boundaries.
But climate change, resource depletion and inequality pose far more serious threats to our survival and quality of life than this pandemic. Even in the worst case scenario, if every human being on Earth were infected with COVID-19 and 2% died, that would be “only” 154 million deaths. That still leaves 7.546 million people alive: far more than enough to guarantee humanity’s survival. Compared to the collective danger of climate change, resource depletion and inequality, COVID-19 is a trifle.
So why hasn’t the fight against climate change and other global threats mobilized us as much as the not-so-serious threat of COVID-19 is mobilizing us? The answer is obvious: COVID-19 catches our attention because it makes its victims sick or kills quickly (in a matter of days or weeks) and unequivocally. On the other hand, climate change destroys us slowly and not so obviously, through indirect consequences such as reduced food production, hunger, extreme weather events and the advance of tropical diseases towards temperate zones. Hence, we have been slow to recognize that climate change is a global threat that demands a global response.
That is why I find reasons for hope in the COVID-19 pandemic (while mourning the dear friends it killed). Because for the first time in history, people around the world are forced to recognize that we face a shared threat that no country can overcome alone. And if the peoples of the world can unite (be bound) to defeat COVID-19, perhaps they will learn a lesson; Maybe they will find the motivation they need to come together (bound) and fight climate change, resource depletion and inequality. In that case, COVID-19 will have been not only the bearer of tragedy, but also of salvation, by leading the peoples of the Earth once and for all towards a sustainable path.
* Translation: Esteban Flamini. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020. www.project-syndicate.org.
