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If Yaku Pérez were finally Andrés Arauz’s contender in the second presidential round, the traditional polarization between left and right would be broken. Here is an approximation of what that means.
The elections of February 7 in Ecuador could open an unprecedented scenario whose significance goes beyond the borders of the Andean country: a ballot between the winning correista candidate, Andrés Arauz, and the candidate of the indigenous movement, Yaku Pérez. The traditional polarization between left and right is now replaced by a new field for political definitions, which is the confrontation within the same forces on the left.
On the one hand, what could now be called the traditional left embodied in the postulates of former President Rafael Correa, the Ecuadorian version of Bolivarianism inaugurated by Chávez and continued by Maduro in Venezuela. And this new expression that would aim to consolidate with the victory of the Movement Pachakutik, which combines the ancestral values of defense of nature against extractivism, with the positions of global environmentalism and the demands of emerging movements such as feminism and environmentalism.
Right deconfiguration
The electoral result presents us with a picture of deconfiguration of the traditional right; the alliance PSC-CREO (Social Christian Party and Movement Creating Opportunities, CREO) proved unsuccessful. From the beginning, it revealed its underlying weakness: an electoral and non-programmatic alliance, united only by the necessary electoral presence, but accompanied by the reluctance to over-strengthen one of its expressions to the detriment of the other.
Deep down they were united, without their noticing it sufficiently, a will to self-boycott as a tendency: little clarity in affirming a joint political program that means the proposal of a real alternative to get out of the deep economic and health crisis that affects the country.
The 19.58% of the vote achieved by candidate Guillermo Lasso, from the PSC-CREO alliance, is far from the 44.41% that the two forces managed to add in the 2017 election, when both faced Lenin Moreno. Then, it was a fragmentation that prevented them, as a trend, from defeating the correista left represented by Alianza País. Now, “united”, the result is worse.
And reconfiguring the left
On the other hand, Andrés Arauz’s victory also reflects a significant drop in the electoral performance of Correísmo with respect to the results that this group had been showing in previous electoral contests. It barely manages to exceed 30%, when historically its level exceeded 40% of voting intention, reaching 39.36% acceptance in the last election.
Two actors emerge surprisingly. On the one hand, Yaku Pérez, who represents Pachakutik, the political arm of CONAIE, a historical organization of the indigenous movement, with almost 20% of the vote. And on the other, Javier Hervas, who achieved 16%, representing the Democratic Left, a center party, a reissue of the traditional Ecuadorian social democracy, in force in the 80s and 90s of the last century.
The electoral result shows the growth of Pachakútik, the protagonist of the October 2019 revolt. Yaku was in charge of positioning his candidacy within the movement, by displacing the other leaders of the indigenous movement closest to Correísmo, Iza and Vargas, a line that it is consolidated with the current result.
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The same happens with the vote that is behind what was achieved by Javier Hervas. The need to abandon the “ideological” rhetoric for the pragmatism of offering business solutions to the employment problem, particularly for the middle urban sectors seriously affected by the crisis.
The distribution of the vote
A quick read of the distribution of the vote is sobering. Arauz is strengthened in the old bastions of the populist coast and of the social Christian right (Guayas and Manabí). While Yaku consolidates its representation of the rural world, the highlands and the Amazon, where Pachakutik and CONAIE have their most consistent political-electoral bastions.
In general, the result allows us to appreciate the emergence of a renewed vote that expresses a high sensitivity for issues that are foreign to traditional contenders, both from the right and from Correismo. The need to turn towards a model of sustainable development and growth, beyond the traditional rhetoric derived from the redistributive struggle. The inclusion of new issues such as the claim of gender and environmentalism, as well as the search to face poverty in the generation of employment and not in the populist handout.
The challenges for the second round that will take place on April 11 are enormous. The confrontation is no longer between the left and the traditional right, which has been virtually relegated from the electoral scene, but is located within the field of the left.
(You can also read: The surprises of the elections in Ecuador)
For candidate Arauz, it will be enormously difficult to confront Yaku Pérez and his program, which includes the traditional demands of the indigenous world and the new demands of emerging social actors. The offers of subsidies and handouts will no longer be enough to captivate an electorate that is moving towards new references and solutions related to the need to combine the sustainable growth of the economy, with the defense and deepening of rights and freedoms, a position that represents the line opposite to the postulates of the correísmo de Arauz.
The challenge for Yaku Pérez is also arduous. How to considerably increase your vote by establishing clear lines of communication with the voters of Lasso and Hervas, to walk together in the line of contention for correismo? How to infect the large city voter and the populist elector of the benefits and scope of your proposal?
* Julio Echeverría is a sociologist and professor at the Central University of Ecuador. Doctor in Sociology from the Università degli Studi di Trento (Italy). Specialized in political and institutional analysis, sociology of culture and urban planning.
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