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After the decision to declare six new towns in strict quarantine, starting next Monday, January 18, and for 14 days, questions arose as to why the same measure is not contemplated for towns that in the past had the restriction due to their high contagions.
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Those towns are Chapinero and Antonio Nariño, which have busy commercial areas, are a source of crowds and have an older adult population. which is the one that is most at risk in case of becoming infected.
But, in addition, there are those of the Center, Los Mártires, La Candelaria and Santa Fe, where there are sectors with a high risk of agglomeration, such as the seventh race and San Victorino. These places are frequented by people from other localities, as is the case of informal vendors, which becomes a risk because they could spread the virus in their localities.
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In 2021, two quarantines have already been declared in the city: one with Suba, Engativá and Usaquén, and the second in Kennedy, Fontibón and Teusaquillo. The latter was due to end on January 21, but was advanced to 18.
According to the Saludata website, Chapinero, who in the first wave of contagion was all or part of it several times in quarantine, has 940 active cases of covid-19. Antonio Nariño experienced a similar situation, with 497 assets.
(Also: These are the other 6 locations in Bogotá that are under quarantine)
The first, according to the data presented by the mayor the previous Monday, had an Rt (number of people who are infected by an infected person) of 0.9, that is, the virus is circulating with less speed than in other areas of the city. While the second, reports a Rt of 1.1. In other words, the virus is expanding.
The towns of the Center, Los Mártires, La Candelaria and Santa Fe, have 524, 188 and 633 active cases, respectively. And the speed of contagion is 0.9 for the first two and 0.8 for the third.
And although these indicators do not put those localities among the most contagious in the city, they may be exposed to being quarantined if the numbers grow.
(Also read: Abecé of the new quarantine in Teusaquillo, Kennedy and Fontibón)
The decision to declare a quarantine is to reduce the cases of infected and the demand for intensive care units (ICU), which are 91.7 percent occupied and 93.5 percent exclusive to Covid.
To make the decision, the Mayor’s Office of Bogotá takes into account indicators such as active cases, the speed of contagion and positivity (people who have been tested and are positive).
In addition, in this middle decision also, the older adult population, which is the one most at risk of dying if they become infected.This would be the case of Teusaquillo, which has a Rt of 0.9 (contagion speed) and 1,065 active cases.
(Of interest: How serious can the second wave of covid be in Bogotá)
However, academics such as Luis Jorge Hernández, a public health physician, epidemiologist and professor at the University of the Andes, is critical of the way decisions are made about quarantines in Bogotá. According to the expert, This is done on absolute data and not on rates that allow the indicators to be compared.
“They are making decisions without much information, they are more political decisions,” says Hernández, who considers that the ideal is that the quarantines are taken on finite information and be by neighborhoods or by UPZ, but not by localities, as is done in Madrid Spain).
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“Decisions must be made based on the rate of active cases, percentage of growth, of positivity and by the PRAS indicators (number of contacts per case, time between the completion of the test and delivery of the result, percentage of contacts captured before 48 hours, percentages of people who are isolated), that would be more valid ”, says the teacher.
In the case of Teusaquillo, for example, Hernández says that he does not understand why the entire town was declared in quarantine and that if it was for the older adult population, he assures that Chapinero and Barrios Unidos have more.
Hernández considers it necessary to reconvene the academics and independent sectors for analysis on the pandemic.
Related news:
– ‘The viral load is increasing in the city’: Claudia López
– December triggered the second peak of the pandemic in the country
– How to stop the spike in infections, according to experts
DRAFTING BOGOTÁ
