[ad_1]
The increase in cases has triggered alerts not only because of an increase in the transmissibility of the virus, but also because the ICUs are reaching their maximum occupancy. Along with the quarantine by locality, a curfew was also decreed. For some experts, the measures are late.
For four days, starting today, Bogotá will once again have a full quarantine. A series of events that have been unleashed in recent weeks caused an increase in the occupation of intensive care units (ICU), which already reaches 84% for COVID-19, which is why the District declared new measures: the quarantine by locality and the night curfew, which will alternate until January 21, in order to prevent the second peak of the pandemic from being much worse than the first.
The causes of the current situation are various. After the end of the sectored quarantines, the city entered a reactivation scheme in October with which the isolation measures were relaxed. Although the use of face masks and constant hand washing continued to be promoted, as well as the call to avoid crowds, the pressure generated by the second day without VAT, added to the purchases and Christmas festivities, were generating throughout December a increase in infections and with it the increase in ICU occupation.
> READ: Is the new variant of the coronavirus to blame for the increase in cases?
In total, in the capital there are 2,265 ICU beds, of which 1,765 are being used to treat infected patients. The increase has been such that availability today is only 13.5%, so that the vast majority of care centers have already reported that they cannot receive more patients. In addition to this, at least six institutions have made public their concern because their emergency rooms have a higher occupancy than they can attend, as is the case of the Cardioinfantil Foundation, the Méderi University Hospital, the Reina Sofía clinic and the hospitals San Ignacio and San José.
The controversy of recent days has focused on this point. In addition to the call made by the Bogotá Medical College due to the high occupancy and delays in finding ICU beds for new patients, especially with comorbidities, the alert issued by the Ombudsman regarding the under-registration of beds was added. The Ministry of Health replied that the comparison between active beds and those available with equipment and personnel has already been made, and 75 more ICUs were established as occupied, which were already included in the count.
The contagion figures are also worrying. The city went from an average of 2,000 cases a day in November to more than 3,000 by the end of the year, and in recent days the numbers have been above 5,000 records a day. Although it has been partly due to the increase in tests, reports have also been climbing to the point that today one in three samples is positive.
Active cases are increasing and are over 41,564, being the localities of Suba Kennedy, Engativá, Usaquén, Fontibón and Bosa the ones that report the most cases, while with respect to the rt (contagion rate or capacity for a positive to infect others) the city went from being 0.8, after the first peak of the pandemic, to 1.08, which implies that one person is capable of infecting another and the virus is much more transmissible.
> READ: Total quarantine in Bogotá due to red alert in the hospital system
Measures
Against this background, Mayor Claudia López suspended her questioned vacation, took charge of the city and yesterday announced the new restrictions in the capital. The biggest is undoubtedly the strict quarantine that the entire city enters from today until Tuesday, in similar circumstances to the one implemented at the beginning of the pandemic.
The decree of the new measures indicates that the circulation of citizens and vehicles is restricted until 4:00 am on January 12. From that day until January 18, the towns of Suba, Engativá and Usaquén, which already had restrictions since Tuesday, will continue to be quarantined, while Kennedy, Fontibón and Teusaquillo will have to remain in isolation until January 21. The restrictions are similar to those of the first quarantine, so that one person in the family is allowed to go shopping, as well as go out to exercise for an hour and attend scheduled medical appointments.
> READ: Quarantine in Bogotá: everything you need to know about the new measures
In addition, the night curfew was decreed as indicated by the National Government, so it will be in force between January 12 and 16 between 8:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m. Despite this, Transmilenio announced that its trunk fleet and The SITP will operate at their usual hours, until 10:00 pm, in order to provide mobility alternatives to those who have exceptions.
In this group are health, security and surveillance personnel, Police, public transport, homes (until 10:00 pm) and those who are in charge of minors and sick people. Vehicles for medical and veterinary care, those in the logistics chain of basic necessities, electronic commerce, public services, funeral services, contractors that are performing functions related to the pandemic, social programs and civil works, are also allowed. as well as travelers entering or leaving Bogotá for previously scheduled trips.
Likewise, measures that have been decreed in recent days will be maintained, such as the dry law from 6:00 pm tomorrow until 5:00 am on January 12, while in the six localities with sectorized quarantines the restriction goes up to January 18. The bill and cédula were also extended throughout the month for the supply and entry to banks and notaries.
Faced with the new measures, Luis Jorge Hernández, an expert doctor in public health from the U. de los Andes, considers that these determinations are more reactive than preventive and respond to a situation that is already occurring in the city. “The ideal would have been to take measures of this type during the Noche de Velitas, on December 24 and 31, for the soccer final or the crowds for shopping and seeing lights. Everything that is done now is a response to what is happening ”.
> READ: How will the night curfew work in Bogotá?
The expert also considered that the impact of each measure must now be measured very well, taking into account that the restrictions are being attributed to the new strain, but it has already been seen that there is still not enough evidence of that. “Sometimes decisions are made more with hunches. It could be better done by UPZ, and even by blocks, something much more focused. Making these decisions for localities that have all the strata is very difficult. In this it does not serve the ‘management of montoneras’ and there are many doubts. That is why the Ministry of Health showed reservations, because the information is not so satisfactory, “he added.
On this, Fernando de la Hoz, professor of epidemiology at the Faculty of Medicine of the National University, agreed, who at first doubts the effectiveness of the quarantine lasting only four days. “It is not as effective as an eight-day one, which takes into account the incubation periods of the virus. However, if you put yourself in the shoes of those who make decisions, you also have to see that the economic recovery was underway, and that weighs when considering the number of days of isolation ”.
Regarding the choice of the localities that enter into sectored quarantine since Ciudad Bolívar has been excluded, despite its high number of active cases and contagion rate, the teacher stressed that it can be related to the number of ICU beds available in those localities. “Some have close occupation or that pass 100%. However, it is not known what is the value of these measures on the occupation of beds and deaths, “he added, noting that of the quarantines that occurred last year there is no official report on the effectiveness of these measures and how many hospitalizations or deaths were avoided.
Although the Mayor’s Office constantly reiterated that it hoped to cross the second peak without closures, the epidemiological conditions led to extreme measures, mainly due to indiscipline at Christmas. On Tuesday the effectiveness of the four days of the general quarantine will be evaluated, but most likely new measures will be taken depending on the citizen’s commitment and the occupation of the ICUs does not change.
> READ: Bogotá quarantine: Fenalco calls for urgent measures to allow commerce to function
Commerce asks for support before quarantines and curfews
The other side of the coin is what it can generate in the economy, whose recovery plan had been going on for about four months. In this regard, the president of the National Federation of Merchants, Jaime Alberto Cabal, expressed with concern that, beyond Bogotá, surely with the new restrictions there will be a scenario similar to that registered in the country in August 2020, “with indicators of destruction of companies and jobs, ”he said.
For her part, the president of the Colombian Association of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Rosmery Quintero, assured that this sector cannot withstand another confinement, since many are in debt and making great economic sacrifices.
They all agree that, beyond confinement, the answer is for the authorities to control compliance with biosafety measures, since they are concerned about the “social indiscipline” of recent weeks.
