The planet fears a second wave of infections by Covid-19

Many countries have begun to ease the ordered measures to tackle the coronavirus, but the fear that this will provoke a “second wave” of infections remains in the minds of many.

Several European countries, a dozen states in the United States, Australia and New Zealand began their exit from confinement, encouraged by a slowdown in infections and deaths from the pandemic, which has already caused more than 240,000 deaths worldwide.

And, although confinement prevents the number of infected people from skyrocketing, it also means that only a minimal part of the population is in contact with the virus and, as a result, is potentially immunized.

Thus, according to the Pasteur Institute, less than 6% of the French would have caught the new coronavirus by May 11, when France will begin to lift the containment.

However, in the most affected places, infection rates are also not very high, such as in New York, where only 21.2% of the population would have generated antibodies, according to studies.

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A second wave in autumn

With no treatment or vaccines yet, returning to activity and resuming travel will inevitably lead to an increase in infections.

Several modeling studies conducted in several countries conclude that a second wave is “very likely”, and that it could take place “at the end of August at the earliest” and “at the latest in the fall,” according to virologist Anne Goffard.

Robert Redfield, a senior US public health official, said he fears an episode “even more difficult than the one we just experienced” next winter if a coronavirus outbreak coincides with seasonal flu.

Virologist Christian Drosten, adviser to the German government, also warned that a second wave could be more powerful than the first.

In contrast, Pierachille Santus, professor of pulmonology in Milan, predicted a second wave “probably less than the first” thanks to the maintenance of control measures, with around 30% fewer “less serious” patients and patients.

There are also those who point out that the new coronavirus could be sensitive to meteorological factors, as are other respiratory viruses.

However, although several laboratory experiments “indicate a reduction in the survival of SARS-CoV-2 at high temperatures,” there is no guarantee that the same will happen in the real world, warned a group of experts consulted by the United States Academies of Sciences. United.

Several small waves

To keep the virus under control, measures such as social distancing, frequent hand washing or the use of masks may be used.

Thus, for example, if France abandoned confinement without maintaining such measures, the final balance could be 200,000 deaths, compared to around 165,000 if physical distance is maintained or around 85,000 if this is combined with the use of a mask, he said. a study by Public Health Expertise.

Also, the authorities could cut the transmission chains with stricter controls on the sources of contagion.

In this sense, Didier Pittet, head of infection prevention and control services at the University Hospitals of Geneva (HUG), stressed the importance of “having the maximum detection capabilities”, of isolating positive people and being able to “perform an investigation of the environment “of the latter.

Taking those measures, “we would have a succession of small waves” of contagion, he explained.

To achieve this goal, the authorities must monitor the rate of reproduction of the virus, which measures the number of people infected by each infected person.

Without control measures, that rate is calculated to be 3.3. The challenge lies in keeping it below 1 so that the number of new cases continues to decrease.