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SÃO PAULO – As was widely expected by investors, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the Selic rate unchanged at 2% per year on Wednesday (10), in the last collegiate meeting of the year.
And after nine consecutive cuts, which brought the base interest rate to its lowest level, the market is now pricing in the beginning of a cycle of high interest rates starting in 2021, in the face of mounting inflationary pressure.
In November, the National Comprehensive Consumer Price Index (IPCA) increased by 0.89% in the monthly comparison, the highest result of the month since 2015.
In the year, inflation already reached 3.13% and, according to the projections of the Focus report, the index should close 2020 with an increase of 4.21%, above the center of the goal, of 4% (with a margin of 1.5%, more or less).
That is, in a scenario that was already difficult to assign, with low interest rates, coronavirus advances and fiscal risk, the investor now has one more challenge when investing, to prevent higher prices from eroding the profits of the briefcase.
As a result, managers like SPX have been going long (betting high) with implicit inflation.
The assessment is that the trajectory of the rise in prices should make the monetary authority change its base scenario and raise interest rates “significantly”, wrote the manager of Rogério Xavier, in a letter to shareholders.
With investors’ concerns on the rise, DI’s futures contract included, on December 7, the Selic rate around 3% in 2021, reaching 6% in 2022, according to XP Investimentos calculations.
Guilherme Anversa, partner and manager of XP Advisory, says that he sees inflation-linked government bonds as a good alternative to diversify and protect the bullish portfolio of the IPCA, especially those with maturity in 2035. “The longer ones incorporate fiscal risk, and the shorter ones don’t pay such attractive rates. “
On Wednesday (9), the IPCA + 2035 Treasury available for purchase on Tesouro Direto paid a real rate, that is, above inflation, of 3.81% per year.
The main investment alternatives recommended by market professionals are shown below in light of the expected scenario in the face of high inflation with low interest rates, and permeated by economic and political uncertainties.
Private credit
For the investor who is willing to increase the risk of the portfolio to increase the fixed income premiums, the specialists consulted by InfoMoney they say they see opportunities in the private credit market.
This is the case, for example, of infrastructure debentures which, in addition to the income tax exemption for individuals, offer protection against price rises, by being indexed to the HICP, with interesting premiums of around the 4%, says Renan Rego. , partner of the wealth management company G5 Partners.
At home, the preference falls on those with shorter maturities, such as 2024 and 2025, given the concern about fiscal risk in the country. Papers with stretched terms, such as 2028 and 2030, can make sense, as long as they offer higher prizes, with a prize of more than 200 basis points relative to the public bond of the same term, he says.
SVN Investimentos office partner Rodrigo Zauner says he likes electric power debentures, due to the increased resilience and predictability of revenues.
He cites as an example the bonds issued by Taesa, rated “AAA” and with a premium of 4.1%, in addition to the IPCA. However, the deadline is 2045.
There are still shorter papers, such as those of the electricity company EDP Transmissão and Eneva, both “AAA”, with terms in 2039 and 2035, respectively, that pay inflation plus 4%.
Zauner points out, however, that it is necessary to assess the investor’s risk profile and remember that the debenture is a less liquid asset, with the company’s credit risk and without guarantee from the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC).
The valuation is shared by Anversa, who warns that the product should not be used as an emergency reserve or for amortization in times of stress, when market liquidity decreases.
That said, the investor should look for more liquid private credit funds, starting at D + 60, he says. “It is a more suitable term for the investor who wants to have a long-term position.”
Real estate funds
One of the products that has been gaining the most share in the investor portfolio in the midst of the low-interest scenario, real estate funds also contribute to portfolio diversification and offer protection in a scenario of rising prices, since lease are indexed. inflation indices, such as IPCA or IGP-M.
“The challenge for the segment is that it is necessary to be very selective. It has the function of evaluating the FII sector, which assets are behind the fund, so it requires a case-by-case analysis ”, says Anversa, from XP.
One of the favorite sectors of the delivery person are the logistics warehouses, given the space for the development of infrastructure in the country and for the advancement of electronic commerce.
In the case of corporate slab funds, Anversa says that it is possible to find good investments, but given the tendency to home Office, the investor should weigh the location of the companies in the portfolio and the management behind the fund before making the contribution.
Zauner, SVN, recommends avoiding monoactive funds (with a single property in the portfolio) and single-lease (with a single tenant), due to the high concentration and, consequently, higher risk.
According to the specialist, it is possible to find real estate funds with a diversified portfolio and dividend yield (proportion of the dividend paid in relation to the value of the asset) around 7%.
Behavior
Despite the strong recovery of the markets in recent months, with Ibovespa that recently returned to pre-pandemic levels, Rego, of the G5, understands that the inflow of external resources, which began to gain strength, can be an important vector for the appreciation of the Brazilian stock market. in 2021.
The big question, however, lies with tax reform and other tax issues, he says. “We need a signal for the Stock Market to move, interest to close and have a second wave of asset appreciation.”
According to Rego, rather than selecting roles to compose the portfolio, investors should seek to assign them to good managers, with a management track record.
The evaluation is shared by the manager of XP Advisory. For the more conservative investor, who does not yet have a market position in the portfolio, a good option, according to Anversa, is funds ”.long skew”, Since they are products that allow less volatility than the stock market average.
And for that investor who already has a little more knowledge, but does not have time to choose and study companies in depth, the expert understands that equity funds “Just long”They are a better alternative, since they tend to offer a more outstanding return, although with more volatility. “The investor is better able to grasp the movements of the Stock Market and professional management,” he argues.
Investors who have time to spend studying investments can allocate a portion of the portfolio to select good companies and build their own portfolio, says Anversa.
International market
Given the uncertainties about the progress of the reform agenda in Brazil, the XP specialist has expanded the global exposure in the client portfolio. In the moderate profile, he says, the percentage went from 5% to 10%.
In addition to the position in technology and health companies in the United States, the allocator says that starting this month it began to complement portfolios with positions in China, in sectors related to consumption and economic growth in the region.
“The Brazilian investor is still very concentrated in Brazil; it is necessary to broaden the diversification between regions and countries within the portfolio, ”he says.
Anversa explains that today the individual investor can already invest in the international market, either through passive funds, as well as actively managed funds with a position in Asia, for example.
Alternative investments
Given the real interest rate close to zero and the recent rise in the stock market, the great opportunity today, according to Rego, of the G5, lies in structured investments, such as Private capital, risk capital and structured credit.
Although many products are aimed at qualified and professional investors, with invested capital from R $ 1 million and R $ 10 million, respectively, Rego says that more and more products are being launched for all types of investors.
Rego cautions, however, that they are illiquid products that should have a small percentage in the portfolio.
“In these products, the investor exchanges liquidity for a special commercial condition, either performance more structured credit, option of capital, among others. That is why it is necessary to know the investor’s profile to adjust the percentage assigned to the risk that he is willing to assume ”, he says.
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