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RIO – The results of the Ibope surveys for 11 capitals indicate the challenge of the PT and the scholarship holders of the PSL, PRTB and Patriota to enable a campaign towards the second round. In part of the capitals, like São Paulo, there is no polarization between left and right. And, in some cases, politicians from other progressive parties started better than the PT at the beginning of the race, while the conservatives who glued the candidacy to the image of President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) start against the “new”.
The figures show that Centrão’s parties do better in the first round of voting intention, mainly because they are the ones that influence remember. In some cases, they are best known for being the ones seeking reelection or for having previously held a relevant public office.
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Of the poll leaders, considering the margin of error of three or so points, four are in the subtitles that make up President Jair Bolsonaro’s base of support, such as Republicans, PSD and PP.
Alexandre Kalil (PSD), who leads the mining capital with 58% of the voting intentions, is the one with the greatest advantage. Four others are from DEM, such as Gean Loureiro, who freely leads in Florianópolis (SC), with 44% of voters, according to a poll released Monday.
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If the subtitles more than Center appear at the top, in the progressive field, the PT sees in capitals such as Recife (PE), Belém (PA) and Porto Alegre (RS) the success of candidacies from parties of the same ideological field, such as PSB, PSOL. and PCdoB, while their isolated names in some cities skid or score.
In Recife, João Campos (PSB) not only leads, with 23% of voting intentions, but also appears with an advantage over Marília Arraes (PT), with 14%. In São Paulo, Márcio França (PSB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) have almost four times more voting intentions, compared to Jilmar Tatto (PT).
Drive left
On the other hand, candidates who achieved a certain unity in the left field obtain better results, such as Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL), who leads with 39% in Belém (PA), and Manoela D’Ávila (PCdoB), with 24% of the voting intentions. according to research published yesterday.
In the conservative field, the so-called “new bolsonaristas”, those that emerged in the electoral wave of 2018, have the challenge of competing with better known candidates who try to associate the image with President Jair Bolsonaro, such as Marcelo Crivella, in Rio de Janeiro , and Celso Russomanno, in São Paulo, both from the Republicans.
In the São Paulo capital, for example, Russomanno, whose declared vote percentage is 26%, has a share of the electorate targeted by Joice Hasselman (PSL) and Arthur do Val (Patriota), both with 1%.
In Belo Horizonte, the 58% percentage recorded by Alexandre Kalil (PSD) is a challenge for the Bolsonarista Bruno Engler (PRTB), with only 3%.
Experts say the radio and television campaign, which begins Friday, could change part of the scene for the first round of the polls.
In the opinion of Ricardo Ismael, professor in the Department of Social Sciences at PUC-Río, the candidates who lead and have the support of Bolsonaro come forward because of the well-known image. As in this election he believes that the Bolsonaro effect will not have the same magnitude as 2018, when strangers are chosen, it will be essential to have what to show, such as proposals and knowledge of the city that he will govern.
– They are politicians who will have to show something besides support – Ismael emphasizes. – They will need a life of their own.
Another factor that weighs is the question of the competitiveness of the application. In the assessment of researcher Eduardo José Grin, from FGV, today the right wing has a fragmentation of candidates, damaging the unity around a name. Explain that if there are competitive candidates, others from the same ideological field have difficulty gaining ground.
– There is still the insignificance of these deputies who surfed the Bolsonarist wave, who from the point of view of electoral density, are still fragile, they do not present themselves in a credible way. The lack of expression (presented in the research) is not surprising at all – emphasizes Grin.
Candidates most connected to the center tend to perform well in municipal elections since, in local disputes, the decision to vote is usually pragmatic and focused on city issues.
– Candidates fleeing political extremes tend to gain momentum because they address specific, local issues. This is the case of centão in several capitals – emphasizes Fernanda Cavassana, from the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR).
Growth potential
In the left field, Ismael affirms that the first results are not encouraging for the PT, which, in addition to trying to recover the image of the wear caused by Operation Lava-Jato, has parties in the same field with more competitive candidates:
– The party still manages a loss. You will have to fight harder to stand out.
In the opinion of political scientists, the “Lula” factor can make a difference. For this reason, the growth potential of the PT today is greater than that of some right-wing legends, such as PSL and PRTB.
– The photo of the moment indicates that the PT lost space, but it can grow, an electoral cable like Lula is not negligible. Today, the PSL has no cable to attract votes – says Grin.
