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On Saturday the 9th, Brazil surpassed the 10,000 death mark for the new coronavirus. According to data from the Ministry of Health, the country has 10,627 deaths. Within 24 hours, the number of confirmed deaths was 730. There are 155,939 confirmed cases of the disease across the country.
The country is already among the nations with the highest number of deaths from the disease, behind the United States (77,489), the new global epicenter of covid-19, the United Kingdom (31,662), Italy (30,395), Spain ( 26,299) and France (26,233), European countries that have been punished by the virus.
The classification is based on data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Brazil had already moved to China, covid-19 ground zero, on April 28.
According to the Ministry of Health, the number of deaths recorded in the last 24 hours does not indicate how many people died between one day and the next, but the number of deaths that had the confirmed cause of the coronavirus in that interval.
In other words, this number may contain deaths that occurred previously, but were only recently diagnosed as a result of the new coronavirus and were recorded in official statistics from the Ministry of Health. Still, the official number of records is growing.
In number of confirmed cases, according to Johns Hopkins, Brazil is in eighth position, behind the United States (1,286,833), Spain (222,857), Italy (217,185), the United Kingdom (212,629), Russia (198,675), France (176,202) and Germany (170,643).
Blocking
Given this scenario, experts say the blockade is a necessary measure to prevent an even greater explosion of cases in capitals and metropolitan regions. “Several states have a demand for health services to the limit and everything indicates that we will have a strong increase in cases and deaths in the coming weeks. This scenario indicates the need for the authorities to indicate the blockade, a measure that must be associated with actions to support socially vulnerable populations ”, defends the epidemiologist Eliseu Alves Waldman, professor at the USP School of Public Health.
Luciana Costa, deputy director of the Institute of Microbiology of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), goes further in the possibility of the effectiveness of the blockade. “Blocking is the only solution at this point that may have some effectiveness in controlling the out-of-control epidemic curve. Social isolation measures did not have the adherence of the population as they should. This was a consequence of confusing information and opposite messages sent by mayors and governors and the President of the Republic, ”he says.
“We see that the epidemic can spread very rapidly in the face of more agglomerations and activities in the area. If nothing is done to interrupt the new transmissions, Brazil could become the new epicenter of the pandemic, along with the United States, “says the specialist at the Laboratory of Genetics and Immunology of Viral Infections.
The compulsory quarantine measure, in which staying at home is an obligation and not a recommendation, has already been adopted by the government of Pará in the capital, Belém, and in other important cities of the state since Tuesday the 5th. Maranhão and Ceará Similar measures have been enacted.
In São Paulo, the state where the first death of covid-19 occurred in the country, on March 17, measures of social distance and the closing of non-essential businesses were extended.
In the state of São Paulo, the quarantine runs until May 31. And the City has announced a more restrictive vehicle rotation, starting Monday, and wants to get 50% of cars off the streets. The state posted the lowest rate of social isolation on Friday for the second time, 46%. The objective is 60% and the ideal to avoid the collapse of the health system is 70%. In Greater São Paulo, the ICU bed occupancy rate is 90%. In the state, it is 70%
Other countries and Brazil
The current moment has become “worrying” in the opinion of the researchers because Brazil has not done its homework. Virologist Flávio Guimarães da Fonseca, who works at the Vaccine Technology Center (CT Vacinas), says that Brazil lost the opportunity to observe the evolution of the pandemic in other countries, such as Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, which began to suffer before The effects of the pandemic. “The reality of other countries, including western ones, could be used as a model to prepare the population. This has not been done uniformly across Brazil, ”says the researcher from the Department of Microbiology at UFMG.
In early March, for example, Italy was the most affected country in Europe by covid-19. There, the first death was confirmed on February 21. Almost five weeks later, the country has already exceeded 10,000 victims. The country was slow to respond to the emergency and recorded more than 30,000 deaths.
Rafaela Rosa-Ribeiro, a doctor in cell and structural biology and currently working with a group of virologists at Ospedale San Raffaele in Milan, says she is watching the same movie a second time. The first was on Italian soil; The second, in Brazil. “It looks like a movie that repeats itself with a different script. Italy underestimated the disease to some degree, not out of malice, but out of ignorance. We were the first country hit outside of China. Then the country was praised for its swift measures. On March 11, everything was closed except pharmacies and supermarkets. It was two months of confinement ”, says the Brazilian scientist. “I have a family in Brazil and I am worried. People do not understand the severity of the disease. In Italy, scientists were heard, “he says.
“I understand that Brazil is a very different country from the European countries. Taking drastic measures is more difficult due to the number of people, the sanitary and economic conditions. But many people who can stay home and companies that could leave employees in the home office are not thinking about the disease, ”he lists.
Low evidence
Infectious diseases specialist Antonio Bandeira, director of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases (OSE) and professor at the Faculty of Technology and Sciences of Uniftc, recalls that Brazil has not been prepared in relation to conducting tests. The expert says that Brazil made 340,000 tests, while the number in the United States is two million.
Of the eight countries with the highest number of cases, Brazil is the one with the least evidence. According to the number of tests per 1,000 inhabitants, presented this Friday by the Covid-BR Observatory, the United States registered an average of 24.4, Spain, 28.9, Italy, 38.3, Germany, 32 8. The index in Brazil is only 1.4.
“Molecular tests (PCR) must be expanded. This is critical. The test allows you to capture patient numbers, help with health planning, and reduce underreporting. With the test, it is possible to define isolation at home so that the infected person does not infect other patients, “he explains.
Due to the lack of evidence, Jean Pierre Schatzmann Peron, principal investigator of the Pasteur / USP Platform, which develops studies focused on antibodies and immunopathogenesis, calculates that the amount of contaminants is three to five times greater in the country. can test everyone, “he summarizes.
Prevention
Alexandre Cunha, infectious disease specialist for the Sabin Group and vice president of the Infectious Diseases Society of the Federal District, says that the main concern should be the speed of spread of the disease and not necessarily with the absolute numbers. “In countries where the epidemic was managed without an overload on the health system, mortality was as expected. In countries with a reasonable hospital situation, but where the health system collapsed, mortality was several times higher than in countries where the system endured, “he argues. “Our main concern is the speed with which these cases and the absorption capacity of the health system. In Brazil, the situation must be analyzed in each municipality. What is good for one region may not be good for another. Each municipality will reach its maximum point at different times ”, difference.
As the coronavirus spreads easily between people, infectious diseases Sylvia Lemos, a consultant in Biosafety and Infection Control and also a member of the OSE, says that individual care with hand hygiene and the use of masks are essential to contain the pandemic. “The habits we are adopting now will last forever. It is essential to wash your hands, with soap and water, to do the cleaning when you return from the street with alcohol gel. The ideal is to stay at home. If it is not possible, it is very important to wear masks, keep a distance of at least one meter and avoid crowds, “he explains.
