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Ginsburg’s death could upset the balance of the Supreme Court for years.
The death of a Supreme Court justice is always important in the United States. But Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s is an earthquake with unpredictable consequences for the country.
Ginsburg, who died on Friday (09/18) at the age of 87 from pancreatic cancer, was a progressive and feminist icon of the highest court in the United States on issues such as gender equality, immigration, abortion and equal marriage. .
His death now opens the possibility for President Donald Trump to nominate his successor to a nine-member court for which he has already elected two, and thus for years upsetting the supreme ideological balance in favor of the conservatives.
Trump has reiterated his desire to select a new Supreme Court justice while Republicans have power over the US presidency and Senate. On Saturday, he said he hopes to announce his appointment “next week” and that she “probably” is a woman.
With this also happening in a politically polarized country and just weeks before a tense presidential election, the debate over Ginsburg’s replacement threatens to widen the gap between Republicans and Democrats.
“Normally, Supreme Court appointments are a bloody sport. So this is going to be truly apocalyptic. There is a lot at stake in that appointment,” says Jonathan Turley, professor of constitutional law at George Washington University, to BBC Mundo, Hispanic service. the BBC.
A key chair
The fact that Supreme Court justices serve for life means that any change in composition has lasting effects.
Appointed by Democratic President Bill Clinton in 1993, Ginsburg was part of a bloc of four progressive justices who used to need a fifth “pendulum” to obtain a majority.
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Ginsbrurg was part of a block of four progressive judges
In recent votes, that fifth vote was cast by Judge John Roberts for decisions on immigration, gay rights and other important issues in the so-called “culture war” in the United States.
American presidents have the power to choose court members, which must be ratified by the Senate, and Trump often considers it an achievement to have done so twice in less than four years in office.
If it could appoint a purely conservative third magistrate, the Court would have six Republican-elected justices, while the Liberal bloc would be in a minority of three.
Over time, this can lead to significant changes in various branches of law.
“This is possibly the most important appointment in the history of the modern court. There are a number of doctrines that currently range from a majority of five to four,” Turley notes.
For example, he points out that a new conservative judge in the courtroom can pave the way to partially or completely reverse Roe versus Wade, the iconic case in which the court decriminalized abortion in 1973.
Credit, Reuters
Two of the current Supreme Court justices were appointed by Donald Trump.
Probably aware of all this, Ginsburg said before he died that his “most fervent desire” was to avoid replacing her until a new president took office, according to US public radio NPR.
The question now is whether Trump can bring about this imbalance in a Supreme Court that recently ruled more than once against the interests of the president.
Ginsburg’s death offers Trump an opportunity to stimulate the conservative and religious electorate less than 50 days before the election, when polls show him behind Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
In fact, for weeks, Trump pointed to the possibility of appointing a third Supreme Court justice as a reason for his re-election.
And this Saturday (09/19) the president confirmed on Twitter that he will try to do so in the months that he remains as president.
“We were placed in this position of power and importance to make decisions by the people who elected us with such pride, one of the most important being the election of the justices of the Supreme Court of the United States. We have this obligation, without delay! “, Wrote. Trump on Twitter in a message to the Republican Party.
And the debate that opens with this will divert attention from Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, when the United States is about to reach 200,000 deaths from covid-19, a number that no other country has recorded.
The Senate, the key
The Senate is controlled by Trump’s Republican Party. Its leader, Mitch McConnell, anticipated on the same Friday night that there will be a vote on the judge appointed by the president.
However, he avoided saying when that would happen: before or after the November 3 elections.
Credit, Reuters
Ginsburg asked that a successor not be named before the election
Republicans have 53 senators (compared to 47 Democrats), but at least two members of that majority protested a few days ago to vote for a new judge so close to the election.
This suggests that Ginsburg’s replacement could become a further test of Republican loyalty to Trump, as some senators fight for re-election.
On the other hand, the controversy is compounded by the precedent that McConnell blocked in 2016 the vote in the Senate of a judge appointed to trial by then-President Barack Obama, claiming that it was an election year.
His explanation now is that the vote can continue because, unlike four years ago, the president and the majority of the Senate belong to the same party.
Democrats quickly demanded that he wait until after the election.
Credit, Reuters
Biden also said that Ginsburg’s replacement will occur after the election.
“The voters must choose the president and the president must choose the judge who will be considered by the Senate,” Biden said Friday.
This can also mobilize voters on the left, who are not yet sure about voting for Biden.
“I can’t imagine making this election more divisive yet, but it happened: It adds a transformative element to the election,” reflects Turley. “This will increase the level of anger in the country.”
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