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Mauricio Maciel
This Wednesday there will be a lot of rain in part of Rio Grande do Sul with very high accumulations for only one day in some locations, warns MetSul Meteorologia.
A low pressure center will advance from the north of Entre Ríos and Corrientes, in Argentina, to the south of Rio Grande do Sul. This system of low pressure will be deep and, under a warm and humid atmosphere of tropical air, it should generate very local rains. strong and excessive, in addition to stimulating localized storms.
Which regions are most at risk of locally voluminous or excessive rainfall on Wednesday? According to the MetSul analysis, the West, the Northwest, the Campaign, the Center of the State and the South of Rio Grande do Sul present the greatest potential for rainfall with high volumes at present. The map below shows the rain projection of the icon of the German model for this Wednesday, but we emphasize that, due to the resolution of the model and its limitation to project very isolated extreme rain events, there will be places where it will rain more than indicated in the Map.
Some municipalities in these regions may experience locally intense rainfall with very high volumes, 50 to 100 mm, in a short period, not leaving many isolated marks of 100 mm to 200 mm in less than six hours, which can lead to flooding and flooding sudden. , in addition to other disorders. There is the possibility of isolated strong wind storms, but in general, the greatest risk is excessive rain.
In the other regions, particularly in the north and northeast of the state, where the sun even appears in the middle of many clouds during part of the day with heat and humidity, the low atmospheric pressure, close to 1000 hPa, combined with heat and air humid, it should favor the formation of areas of instability that will bring more irregular rains, but which, in isolation, can be strong to torrential with high volumes located in a short period. Also, the sum of hot air and low pressure can generate strong isolated storms of wind and hail.
The low-pressure system that moves through Rio Grande do Sul has no chance of becoming a cyclonic pump. A meteorological pump or cyclonic pump is a low-pressure center that undergoes rapid deepening and whose central atmospheric pressure drops 24 hPa (hectopascals) in a minimum interval of 24 hours. This city center will enter from the west of Rio Grande do Sul with 1001 or 1002 hPa and will be in the south of Rio Grande do Sul and then on the coast with 998 or 999 hPa. The depth will be discreet and should not exceed 5 hPa, thus far from a 24 hPa drop for the classification of a cyclonic bomb.
Tomorrow (28), the greatest instability should be concentrated from the center to the north of Rio Grande do Sul with a lot of rain in some points and isolated storms. Porto Alegre and the region are at increased risk of locally heavy and voluminous rains only on Thursday. The possibility of repeated storms with wind, like yesterday, is not ruled out, but the probability of heavy rain will be greater than that of wind.
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