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Last Friday (02), the president signed a provisional measure Jair bolsonaro, expanding from 30% to 35% the margin for granting payroll loans for beneficiaries of the National Social Security Institute (INSS).
Besides the fact that retired and retirees can have access to credit bigger, why does it matter? The XP Investimentos team bets on another profit opportunity for the banking sector.
“With the increase in margins and everything else the same (rate of interest, number of payments and amount of benefit), the 5% increase in the consignable margin can increase concessions by up to 17% ”, calculates analyst Marcel Campos.
Payroll loans are the largest line of credit for individuals, in addition to representing 11% of the credit of the national financial system. However, the line is relevant for traditional, small, medium and digital banks.
However, the measure is only temporary as a way to alleviate the economic crisis caused by the pandemic of COVID-19 so that banks have only 3 months of increased concessions.
Excellent moment
A Bolsonaro’s canetada is with an excellent moment, since, according to the analyst, the payroll line of credit has:
one) a structurally low default rate of ~ 2-3%, which is excellent for a crisis environment and little visibility on how default rates will behave in the coming quarters; Y
two) attractive annualized interest of 22%, an opportunity for a high differential, since Brazil live at the slowest pace Selic of its history, at 2% per year.
Who earns the most?
In Campos’ analysis, the good news is that almost the entire banking system, but mainly small and medium-sized banks focused on payroll, will have more to celebrate.
“In our coverage, the Banrisul (BRSR6) is the highlight, since 45% of the bank’s portfolio came from payroll loans ”, reveals the analyst.
“However, incumbent banks also have a strong (and growing) presence on the line, as evidenced by the balance of R $ 86 billion in the Bank of Brazil (BBAS3) – 13% of its portfolio -, R $ 65 billion Bradesco (BBDC4) – 10% of its portfolio -, R $ 50 billion Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) – 7% of its portfolio – and R $ 45 billion Santander Brazil (SANB11) – 12 of loans – “explains Campos.
Given that borrowers prefer to use traditional payroll loans first, which have a lower interest rate and which can negotiate with other financial institutions, XP Investimentos expects the measure to slow down the rate of granting payroll loans.
