[ad_1]
SÃO PAULO – In World War II, women’s occupation of male jobs was supposed to be a temporary situation, while men were on the battlefield. It has become a permanent condition, and Bradesco BBI analysts fear that something similar may happen after the Covid-19 pandemic ends.
Leandro Fontanesi, an expert in the analysis of the food and beverage sectors, said, in a 14-page report, that the institution’s baseline scenario is that consumption of food and beverages outside the home returns to pre-crisis levels. But there is a “concern” with a more permanent change in habits, based on past events and research.
“The SARS epidemic between 2002 and 2004 led to a significant increase in broadband subscriptions and a lasting boost for e-commerce,” exemplifies the publication. A Nielsen survey in China, where reopening begins after the most severe period of contamination, showed that 86% of people plan to eat more frequently at home compared to the pre-Covid-19 period.
The effects
A scenario with 50% less consumption of food and beverages outside the home would lead, for example, to a 21% drop in beer sales in Brazil, Fontanesi estimates. Nationally, 58% of people prefer to drink beer when they are away from home, but only 19% prefer to drink at home.
On the other hand, the same scenario would lead to an 11% increase in the consumption of non-alcoholic beverages, according to BBI calculations. The impact for Ambev (active = ABEV3]) would be a 3% drop in Ebitda in the most moderate case (10% decrease in activities outside the home) and 14% in the most extreme case (50% reduction), estimates the analyst.
| -10% in external consumption | -twenty% | -30% | -40% | -fifty% | |
| Impact on Ambev Ebitda | -3% | -6% | -8% | -eleven% | -14% |
From a food point of view, the BBI study points to a 4% drop in protein consumption in the sum of the United States, China and Brazil in a 50% isolation scenario, which would have a great impact on listed protein companies. at B3. In a segmented way, a 25% drop in fish consumption, 60% for pork and 15% of processed foods is expected.
“Given that protein markets are interconnected (Brazil, China, and the US account for about 50% of global protein trade), we are concerned that meat and chicken prices worldwide will experience such a drop in demand, “writes Fontanesi. In this scenario, a fall of 12% is expected for Ebitda of BRF (BRFS3), of 9% for JBS (JBSS3) and of 8% for Marfrig (MRFG3).
Check the impacts of the actions evaluated in each scenario:
| -10% in external consumption | -twenty% | -30% | -40% | -fifty% | |
| JBS | -2% (Ebitda) | -4% | -5% | -7% | -9% |
| BRF | -2% | -5% | -7% | -10% | -12% |
| Marfrig | -2% | -3% | -5% | -6% | -8% |
| Half | -2% | -4% | -6% | -8% | -10% |
[ad_2]
