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This Wednesday (2) an extratropical cyclone will form with the deepening of a low pressure center over Uruguay. The cyclone will originate, according to most of the models analyzed, in the region of the mouth of the Rio da Prata with a central atmospheric pressure value around 1,006 hPa.
Attention! Extratropical cyclones are absolutely routine in regional climatology and dozens of them operate every year in the South Atlantic. This system will not meet the characteristics of a cyclonic bomb near the continent as the one registered between June 30 and July 1 because an explosive is not expected. intensification near the coast with a drop in atmospheric pressure of 24 hPa or more in a 24 hour interval.
The trend is for the cyclone to intensify rapidly as the system moves southeast, off the coast of Argentina, as it moves away from the mainland on Thursday, when its central pressure is expected to drop to values around 980. hPa. The cyclone will be more intense, therefore, when it is already far from the continent in the South Atlantic.
The wind directly associated with the cyclone will be felt more in the South and East of Uruguay between Wednesday and Thursday, particularly in the departments of Montevideo, San José, Canelones, Maldonado and Rocha, where the average gusts should be between 70 km / h. 90km / h, more intense in isolated points, which can cause some disorders such as dimming. In general, the impacts are not expected to be significant in Uruguay.
Effects in southern Brazil
In Rio Grande do Sul, the system can indirectly bring strong winds. This is because with the deepening of a low pressure center over Uruguay, a jet stream (wind) will act at low levels of the atmosphere, a kind of wind corridor at about 1,500 meters of altitude.
With that, the wind can blow with strong gusts from the north quadrant during this Wednesday in the State. The area of Santa María and the region of the valleys, in the center of Rio Grande do Sul, are especially susceptible to strong winds in the presence of a jet stream at low levels of the atmosphere. The influx of the jet stream with dry and hot air will open the climate in most of the regions of Rio Grande do Sul, except in the extreme south and part of the border with Uruguay, with a sharp increase in temperature and heat in the late.
In the west of Santa Catarina and in the west of Paraná there can still be strong gusts of wind from the north quadrant associated with the “jet”, as is common in this type of weather conditions.
The important jet stream will bring smoke from the burning from the Midwest of Brazil, the south of the Amazon region and from Paraguay to the south of Brazil.
A cold front will be organized, associated with the cyclone, which will have to advance through Rio Grande do Sul between Wednesday and Thursday with rain, but it will not be bulky. The system enters the West on Wednesday and reaches most regions on Thursday. Before that, however, areas of prefrontal instability may form, especially on Wednesday night and, above all, in the north of Rio Grande do Sul with the risk of storms due to the high temperature.
A risk in the frontal passage, considering the presence of the low-level jet stream with its divergent wind pattern and the rapid exchange of air masses (hot to cold) is the occurrence of strong to intense gusts and that in some points can take the condition of gale. The exchange of air masses will continue to cause a decrease in temperature, but since it is not a mass of cold air of greater intensity, intense cold is not expected.
The effects of this system will be minimal in Santa Catarina and Paraná, except for the cold front that will bring very irregular rains and possible isolated storms.
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