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Gabriel Zaparolli / MetSul Archive
A very hot air mass covers Rio Grande do Sul and brought an afternoon torrid today in the state with maximums around 40ºC in some cities. This mass of warm air will remain over the territory of Rio Grande do Sul during the weekend and, unlike today when dry air predominates, it will receive more humidity. The combination of more humid air and a very hot atmosphere will be responsible for the formation of areas of instability in most of the regions of Rio Grande do Sul, both on Saturday and Sunday.
MetSul Meteorology warns of the high risk of isolated storms during the weekend in Rio Grande do Sul. As the temperature will be very high, the risk of very heavy clouds forming is high. This, in practice, means a high risk of isolated storms in the state on both Saturday and Sunday.
The temperature, even without today’s extremes due to the increased presence of clouds and rain in some places already in the late morning or early afternoon, will continue to be very high with severe suffocation. Heat is an aggravating factor, so some of these predicted storms can be isolated from strong to severe with gales and hail capable of causing damage in places. It is not possible to anticipate which city may be most affected by severe weather, since storms are localized and only in the short term, what is called immediate weather forecast, it is possible to warn of a specific location in such situations.
The approach of colder air in the south with the displacement of a cold front should also contribute to the occurrence of electrical storms located on Sunday in Rio Grande do Sul. Storms located during the weekend are also expected in Santa Catarina and Paraná .
Rain volumes will be too irregular. Strong hits to isolated high-volume torrents are expected in a short period in the three southern states, but massive and widespread rains are not expected. A downpour can cause flooding in a city or part of a city and a few kilometers away, little or no rain.
The map above, available for subscriber from MetSul in the maps section, shows the WRF model rainfall projection as of 9am on Monday. You can see how it will rain in most of southern Brazil, however volumes must vary greatly from one point to another. We recall that the numerical models have difficulty in projecting the volumes of rain with convection and the isolated points may have accumulated much higher precipitation than that indicated by the model in case of storm.
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