US Research Center Predicts 90,000 Deaths in Brazil O Dia

São Paulo – With 749 more deaths in 24 hours, Brazil reached 13,149 victims yesterday through covid-19, according to the Ministry of Health, but the country may have around 90 thousand deaths due to the coronavirus in August, according to the main model . statistic that supports the health policies of the White House in the United States.

For the first time, the Institute for Health Measurement and Assessment (IHME), a research center within the University of Washington School of Medicine, screened Latin American countries and drew attention to the situation in Brazil. The initial forecast of the IHME is that the country will have an average of 88,305 thousand deaths by August 4, within a range that estimates a minimum of 30,300 deaths and a maximum of 193,700.

The forecasts are updated as new data is published, such as the number of infected and hospitalized, and can also be modified by changes in the public policies adopted in each country. In the same period, Mexico and Ecuador are expected to have around 6,000 deaths and Peru 5,000, according to the model.

The darkest moments are yet to come and Brazil continues to a peak of infections. The model indicates that the country should record more than a thousand deaths per day between June 17 and July 9, with the worst moment on June 24, with 1,024 deaths.

Thereafter, if the projections are confirmed, Brazil would maintain this average of daily deaths until the beginning of July, when the curve would begin to fall. Still, the death toll would remain high, with more than 750 deaths every 24 hours in August.

In the United States, the White House used the HMI when President Donald Trump estimated in late March that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die as a result of covid-19 in the first wave of contagion, even with the adoption of distance measures. Social. . Without them, Trump said at the time, the virus could kill up to 2 million Americans. The country registers 83.6 thousand deaths.

In verifying the hospital’s capacity, IHME describes a bleak scenario for Brazil. Experts estimate that since May 3, the country has been operating with fewer intensive care units (ICUs) than necessary to meet all needs and the situation tends to worsen. On June 28, the country will have 11,178 patients who will need ICU beds, but only 4,060 will be available, according to the study. Only in August the number of beds offered for intensive treatment will be close to demand.

In the USA In the US, critics of the HMI model point out that projections predict the end of the spike in infections faster than ever recorded, leading to an underestimated number of deaths by Washington researchers. The forecast has already been updated multiple times, with the current projection of 147,000 deaths for the first wave of contagion from Americans.