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The number of covid-19 cases in the state of Minas Gerais may be 16 times greater than the officially published number. According to a survey carried out by the UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais), there would be 16.5 unreported cases of the new coronavirus for each confirmed case. The survey also shows that underreporting in the state is four times greater than that of Brazil. In the country, the estimate is that there are 3.8 people with the covid-19 for each confirmed case.
The study published yesterday was carried out by professors Leonardo Costa Ribeiro, from the UFMG Faculty of Economic Sciences, and Américo Tristão Bernardes, from the physics department of the Federal University of Ouro Preto, and evaluated the numbers between 9 (23 to February 29) and 17 (April 19 to 25) epidemiological weeks.
A month ago, the under-registration rate in the country was 7.7 for each confirmed case. The reduction, according to Ribeiro, is due to increased testing across the country, unlike in Minas Gerais. The study evaluated the number of hospitalizations for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the state. Minas Gerais has the third highest number of hospitalizations for SARS, behind São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, but it only appears in position 11 in the list of confirmed cases of covid-19.
“We believe that the combination of a high number of hospitalizations for the syndrome with a low number of tests and confirmed cases is an indication that there is a large underreporting in official records,” says the researcher.
The research used statistics on hospitalizations from Fiocruz and combined analyzes on the evolution of hospitalizations between 2012 and 2020. This analysis identified the typical behavior of SARS hospitalization cases in the same period of the years evaluated.
In 2012, the number of hospitalizations for SARS in that period was 1,184 in the country and 455 in Minas Gerais. In 2016, there was an increase of 16,500 cases in Brazil and 1,254 in the state of Minas Gerais. In 2020, these hospitalizations increased considerably: there are 64,074 in the country and 6,147 in Minas Gerais.
The technical note published by the researchers indicates that the under-registration rates were obtained based on the most severe cases, which reach hospitals. “Therefore, it is to be expected that, also considering the cases that do not generate hospitalization, these rates will be even higher.”
According to the balance published yesterday by the Department of Health of the State of Minas Gerais, the state has 3,435 confirmed cases of covid-19 and 101,496 suspects. 127 deaths were recorded due to the disease and there are 118 deaths under investigation.
