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Coronavirus in Brazil (Source: Getty Images)
SÃO PAULO – A Second wave gives new coronavirus pandemic It may have already arrived in the country and is more worrying than the first.
The latest case controls, hospitalizations and deaths support the view that we may be in a second wave. One of the polls indicates the biggest upward trends in infections and deaths since May, for example. Other notifications show the increase in admissions due to Covid-19.
OR InfoMoney gathered this data and spoke with experts to understand what motivates this possible second wave in Brazil and how we should deal with cases, deaths and hospitalizations.
“If we can’t change our attitude, we may be in a much worse situation. You cannot have a normal life without first combining it with the virus ”, said Natalia Pasternak, doctor in Microbiology and president-director of the Questão de Ciência Institute (IQC).
Natalia avoids using the term second wave, however, because she says that Brazil didn’t really come out of the first wave. “But we have a very worrying second peak, yes,” he says.
Dr. Renato Kfouri, director of the Brazilian Society of Immunization (SBIm), also believes that recent data on increases in hospital admissions may indicate a second wave, or at least a “peak of the first wave.” However, the figures need further monitoring in order to draw conclusions.
Kfouri warns of a “known insufficient notification of cases in Brazil”, in addition to delayed and accumulated notifications. Since the number of cases varies according to the availability and effectiveness of the tests, the number of deaths and hospitalizations needs further analysis. “It is difficult to make concrete predictions. The data for the next few weeks will give an idea of whether this growth that we are seeing is maintained throughout the days, which is what characterizes a real increase ”.
The doctor affirms that any new update on the pandemic must be faced regionally, given the extension of the Brazilian territory. “We have hundreds of different epidemiological moments at the same time. What happens in Manaus is certainly not what happens in São Paulo or Florianópolis. Even within cities, we see huge disparities in numbers. “
Discharge in infections, deaths and hospitalizations
A new survey of the situation of the pandemic in cases and deaths was published this Tuesday (17) by the press consortium that unites the vehicles. G1, O Globo, Extra, O Estado de S.Paulo, Folha de S.Paulo me Twitter. The investigation was based on data from state health departments.
In number of cases, the consortium declares that 5,909,002 Brazilians have had or have the new coronavirus, being that 32,262 of these cases were confirmed on Tuesday (17). The moving average for the last seven days was 29,674 new diagnoses per day, Advance 71% compared to 14 day average ago, which indicates a upward trend in infections by Covid-19. This is the largest increase recorded since May.
Brazil had 676 deceased by Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, totaling 166,743 deaths since the start of the pandemic. A moving average of deaths in Brazil in the last seven days was 557, the largest since October 12. The variation was Four. Five% relative to deaths recorded on average two weeks ago. This is also the highest percentage growth recorded since May.
The media point out that the variation may have been large because there has been a drop in records for 14 days, due to the Day of the Dead. Even so, almost 30 thousand cases and 550 deaths on average in the last seven days would be “worrying data.” 14 Brazilian states registered an increase in the number of deaths, while eight of them, plus the Federal District, registered stability: four fell.
Doctors ask for confinement in São Paulo
São Paulo extended the quarantine until December 16, after an increase in hospitalizations. According to Folha de S.Paulo, municipal hospitals had 693 hospitalized as a result of Covid-19 on November 13 (last Friday). Hospitalizations have grown over the days, reaching 814 on Tuesday.
The Government of São Paulo said, also on Tuesday, that the occupancy rates for ICU beds are 48.2% in Greater São Paulo and 42.7% in the State. On Friday, rates were 45.2% in Greater São Paulo and 41.4% in the state.
Also according to the newspaper, a group of infectious diseases specialists from São Paulo sent a letter to friends to alert them of a “significant increase in Covid-19 cases in São Paulo hospitals.” Health institutions would be completely booked due to a “100%” increase in some services.
In the letter, the doctors again recommend practicing home isolation. “Don’t go to bars, restaurants and parties. Don’t organize meetings or social events. We think you are tired of all this, but remember that we are MUCH more…. and we continue to see people die, entire families contaminated and cases that are constantly increasing without governments taking action, ”they write.
The National Jornal, news of the TV GloboHe stated that the increase in hospitalizations can also be seen in private hospitals. Albert Einstein, in São Paulo, had seen an average of 50 to 55 patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in the last three months. The number started to rise and went to 68 last Friday (13). The number of beds occupied by the disease reached 93 on Tuesday.
Second peak
Even emphasizing that Brazil never got over the first wave, Pasternak reinforces that the country faces an alarming second peak of the disease.
The PhD in Microbiology and CEO of IQC uses the claim that the transmission rate (RT) has been greater than 1 since November 11. This number allows us to estimate how the disease spreads in the population, reflecting how many people will be infected with each new infection. When it is greater than 1, it means that the number of cases tends to increase.
Imperial College, a London university focused on science, engineering and medicine, re-classified the epidemic in Brazil as “out of control”, as it also found the transmission rate to be above 1. At the end of last week, the institute calculated the RT of the country around 0.94. The new rate places the country in a similar situation to the European regions that are currently experiencing the second wave, such as Italy, Portugal and the United Kingdom.
The peak of the pandemic, or the highest moving average of deaths, was recorded on July 25, with 1,097 deaths. But, for the researcher, Brazil may end up experiencing a more alarming scenario in a second wave.
When asked if the country could report daily death figures higher than those registered in the peak period, in July he replied: “This is not possible to know, medical care has improved a lot. But if the hospitals fill up, people will die for lack of proper care. “
He adds that although we have developed better medical learning than at the beginning of infections, which would guarantee better treatment and lower mortality, people are increasingly exhausted by measures of social isolation.
“I predict a second peak of infections that is very worrying, driven mainly by the same reasons that caused the wave in Europe: psychological fatigue,” says Pasternak. PhD says that schools in São Paulo are closing again because students are getting contaminated outside of the teaching environment, in gatherings, parties and gatherings.
“That students contract the virus outside of school and put the entire educational institution at risk is an interesting fact, because it shows that the biggest problem is really in the behavior of people, who no longer want to comply with preventive measures” says Pasternak. “The virus is not exhausted. He is doing very well and has not gone anywhere. “
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