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The moving average of deaths from Covid-19 in the Federal District increased for the third time in a row and reached 16.6. The indicator only grew after reaching the lowest point of the second half, on Tuesday (9/29). At that time, the indicator was 13.3.
Compared to what was registered 14 days ago, there was a decrease of 29.7%. Thus, it is possible to affirm that deaths are decreasing, since the variation in the number of deaths is greater than 15%. Due to the incubation time of the new coronavirus, the recommendation of the experts was adopted: compare today’s moving average with that of 14 days ago. Fluctuations in the number of deaths or cases of up to 15% more or less characterize the invariance.
Since the coronavirus pandemic arrived in Brazil, the country’s capital has registered 194,042 cases and 3,300 deaths. Of these, 270 were from people who lived in other states. In the last 24 hours, 915 infections and 15 deaths were confirmed.
Tracking the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic based on absolute data of deaths or cases is far from ideal. That’s because they can have very large daily variations, especially backlogs. On weekends, for example, it is common to notice a significant reduction in the number.
To lessen this effect and produce a more accurate view, the moving average is widely used around the world. The rate represents the sum of the deaths reported in a week divided by seven. The name “mobile” is because it varies according to the total number of deaths in the previous seven days.
