The military top moves away from Bolsonaro’s radicalism, but academics see the risk among middle and low-ranking officers

The day after President Jair Bolsonaro attended a new act with undemocratic guidelines, in which he said he had the support of the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Defense demonstrated by reinforcing the military’s commitment to the Constitution.

In a note signed by the minister (and reserve general) Fernando Azevedo, the folder says that “the Armed Forces will always be on the side of law, order, democracy and freedom.” Monday’s statement also states that “any attack against press professionals is unacceptable,” in rejection of the violent attacks on journalists and photographers by protesters outside the Planalto Palace, during the act of support for Bolsonaro on Sunday. .

For the Armed Forces academics heard by BBC News Brazil, the Defense Ministry demonstration marks a departure from the military leadership from the radicalism of the president. However, these analysts express concern about the possibility of lower and middle-ranking officers joining authoritarian movements.

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In addition to the attack on journalists, photographer Dida Sampaio, from the Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, was shot down and beaten and kicked: Sunday’s act in front of the Planalto Palace was marked by attacks against Congress, the Federal Supreme Court and former Justice Minister Sergio Moro, who resigned accusing Bolsonaro of wanting to intervene in the Federal Police.

In a speech delivered on the ramp of the Planalto Palace, Bolsonaro said: “You know that the people are with us. The Armed Forces, along with the law, order, democracy, freedom and truth, are also on our side To the executioners, I ask God that we have no problems this week, because we have reached the limit. There is no more conversation. “

Two weeks earlier, he made a similar statement in another authoritative act by his supporters outside the army headquarters in Brasilia.

For Antonio Jorge Ramalho da Rocha, professor of international relations at UnB, with research in the areas of international security and national defense, “today there is no doubt about the unity of command and the commitment of the military summits to democratic institutions and values Today, although we all agree that there is much to be done to improve our institutions and political practices. “

“But, over time, it is not impossible that internal divisions arise in relation to this commitment of the Forces with the State. And this risk grows in proportion to the participation of active officers in the government,” he believes.

The number of military personnel with civilian positions in the federal government is close to 3,000. In March, the Army, Navy and Aeronautics assigned 2,897 to other areas, according to data from the Ministry of Defense that was transmitted to BBC News Brazil in March. They occupy from functions in the third and second echelon of the federal administration to positions at the highest level of government, with an emphasis on three ministries located within the Planalto Palace – Casa Civil (general of the Braga Netto reserve), Government Secretariat (general Luiz active Eduardo Ramos) and the Office of Institutional Security (Augusto Heleno general reserve).

Ambiguous relationship

Political scientist Octavio Amorim Neto, a professor at Ebape / FGV, says that the Armed Forces are in an “extremely ambiguous situation” within the Bolsonaro administration. On the one hand, they have not had much political power since 1985, the year of the country’s redemocratization after two decades of military dictatorship. On the other hand, the upper part of the Armed Forces tries to differentiate what is the institution from what is the government, pointing out that the occupants of the highest positions are already in the reserve or have graduated from a military career, as in the case of Minister Ramos.

“This ambiguous and very murky situation is creating increasing risks for suddenly a smaller individual actor, who makes a bolder decision and the process is triggered by a major political crisis,” he believes.

The professor exemplifies his thesis by recalling the public security crisis generated by the military police unrest in Ceará, in which Senator Cid Gomes (PDT-CE) was shot when he faced the strikers. At that time, public security analysts saw the risk that the crisis would spread to other states, due to the political strengthening of the police category, a group very present in Bolsonaro’s electoral base.

“Until now, the commanders of the three Forces (Army, Air Force, and Navy) that have set the tone for the Armed Forces. What if the middle officers start talking? Then the question of the integrity of the Armed Forces will be at risk. In a situation as tense as this, someone can lose self-control, “adds Amorim Neto.

Demonstration of the Armed Forces is not normal

The importance of fighting the covid-19 pandemic, a disease that has already killed more than 7,000 Brazilians, but which Bolsonaro called “influenzazinha,” also draws attention to the Ministry of Defense demonstration.

“We face a pandemic of still unpredictable health and social consequences, which requires effort and understanding on the part of everyone,” the note says, preaching together at a time when the president has been in conflict with the governors, Congress and the power of attorney.

However, although the two teachers interviewed by BBC News Brazil considered that the rating was positive, both highlighted that it is not “normal” for the armed forces to manifest themselves politically in a democracy.

“The note is clear and unambiguous. It reaffirms the commitment of the Armed Forces to the current constitutional order, which includes respect for freedom of expression and the press, in addition to the concern to respond to the crises facing society today in day, there is no reason to doubt the commitment of the superior forces to these values, “says Ramalho da Rocha, from UnB.

“It is regrettable that the Minister of Defense has considered it necessary to issue an official note with this content, which would obviously be anachronistic in other circumstances. When the generals must make it public to say that they would not support a coup, it is because there is a perception that the actors politicians are considering this possibility, “he says.

Message also to Congress and the Judiciary

On the other hand, the demonstration by the Ministry of Defense also brings a signal to Congress and the Judiciary, Amorim Neto believes. Right at the beginning, after saying that “the Armed Forces fulfill their constitutional mission”, the statement highlights that “the Navy, the Army and the Air Force are state agencies, which consider independence and harmony among the Powers essential for governance from the country”. “

For the FGV professor, this section is related to dissatisfaction within the Armed Forces with what is seen as interference actions by the Judiciary and the Legislature in the Executive.

In the case of Congress, at the beginning of the year there was a strong crisis that involved the dispute for control of part of the Union budget, in which General Heleno was unknowingly registered, calling the blackmailing Parliament and sending an “f * give-it “to the congressmen. .

The STF has already made a series of decisions that limit Bolsonaro’s performance, which some jurists consider a control of the president’s abuses, while others consider that the court ministers have excesses.

The most recent decisions that irritated the president and his military ministers were the mandate of the minister Alexandre de Moraes that prevented the appointment of the delegate Alexandre Ramage to head the Federal Police and the veto of the minister Luis Roberto Barroso to the expulsion of the Venezuelan diplomats from Brazil .

Moraes prevented the appointment of Ramage due to the friendship of the federal delegate with the president’s children, while Barroso considered that it was not appropriate to extradite foreigners in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

For Amorim Neto, Bolsonaro uses the Armed Forces precisely as a way to protect himself from the reaction of other Powers to his government. He points out that the president maintains a frequent schedule of attendance at military ceremonies, in a routine very different from that of his predecessors.

Just as he does not see conditions today for an institutional breakdown of the president with the support of the military, the FGV professor does not currently observe the prospect of Bolsonaro’s fall through a process of impeachment. Therefore, he believes that the country will continue in a scenario of “great uncertainty and instability.”

“And Bolsonaro’s game will continue to involve the Armed Forces in their political maneuvers, to compel Congress and the STF not to limit it, not control it,” he says.

* collaborated Matheus Magenta, from London

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