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RIO, SÃO PAULO, FORTALEZA and MANAUS – The new coronavirus Last week it gave a sample of its potential for destruction: the number of dead and infected has multiplied in seven days. Yesterday, the deaths reached 1,056, a number three times higher than last Friday, when they were 359. The number of contaminations went from 9,056 to 19,638 in the same period.
The progress of the cases knocks on the doors of the hospitals, which are moving towards collapse. In Saint PaulHowever, the epicenter of the pandemic in the country, the health system could lose its hospitalization capacity in ten days, if the population does not follow health policies. Social isolation. At the end of March, 69% of the state’s population adhered to the quarantine decreed by the state government; the goal was for this rate to reach 80%. However, the commitment decreased, and last Thursday, only 47% of São Paulo residents followed the guidance of the authorities. The curve of new cases, which came to be crushed, is increasing.
Analytical:Quarantine is not a comprehensive measure, but it is necessary against the coronavirus.
– If the number of cases continues to grow at this rate, the health system will be unable in ten days, two weeks – warns Dimas Covas, director of the Butantan Institute and one of the members of the committee formed by the São Paulo government to manage the crisis, which did not. rules out the use of the Military Police to avoid crowds. – It is necessary to study ways to strengthen this social isolation. We must announce, next to the (governor) João Doria, new measures, if applicable.
The state of São Paulo has 12,546 beds. ICU public and private, and the current occupancy rate is around 50%. Most beds are occupied by everyday cases. The ICU occupancy rate for coronavirus victims has increased at a rate of 20% per day. Last Wednesday, there were 861.
Lack of respirators
In Rio, 65% of the ICU beds are occupied, but the cases are progressing and there is already fear that the network will not be able to handle it. The Secretary of State for Health, Edmar Santos, says that the state network admits up to 16,000 hospitalizations, but he does not rule out that an acceleration of cases lead to the infection of 40,000 or 50,000 patients, making care impossible.
The reference hospital in the municipal network, Ronaldo Gazolla, had its 38 ICU places occupied. In a note sent to GLOBO this Saturday morning, the Municipal Health Secretariat clarifies that the unit is not at full capacity, contrary to what the report reported in the print edition, since the Rio City Council opened 12 more beds of intensive care in the hospital located in Acari.
“There are already 150 open beds, 50 of which are for intensive care. This number will be progressively expanded to the capacity of 381, of which 201 will be ICUs (182 for adults and 19 for children and adolescents). This Friday, there were 38 patients hospitalized in the ICU. Since March 23, Ronaldo Gazolla has been fully dedicated to the coronavirus, and is working to adapt and expand the beds. “
Threat:Covid-19 killed more than dengue, measles, and H1N1 combined in 2020
In an interview with “Bom Dia Rio”, the day before yesterday, Governor Wilson Witzel (PSC) agreed with the projections made by the School of Public Health of Harvard (USA), Which estimated that the ICU vacancies in the state public system could be exhausted in three days (14), and ventilators, on the 28th.
“People did not understand the severity of the problem,” said Witzel. – Whoever is on the street today is at risk for all of society.
The Rio municipal network also shows signs that fighting the coronavirus will be difficult. In total, the city council network will initially have 881 beds dedicated to the treatment of patients with coronavirus, 381 in Gazolla and 500 in the Riocentro field hospital. Currently, 155 suspected or confirmed patients are hospitalized in the municipality.
The doctor and public health specialist, Ligia Bahía, a professor at the UFRJ, estimates that the municipal system will soon reach its limit.
The mayor does not agree.Crivella says that “due to the curve of cases that we are monitoring, we will not end in chaos”
“This network is important for primary and emergency care, which are two fundamental points for the care of coronavirus cases, avoiding overloading the hospital network,” he explains. – There will come a time when we will enter despair, like in Italy.
A doctor and director of a private hospital, who declined to be identified, says his team is working with the peak of the pandemic in Brazil during the week of May 12. According to him, the hospital was prepared taking into account the predictions of the worst possible scenario.
Federal aid
The Ministry of Health announced yesterday that it has started a plan to distribute 60 respirators to Strength, Manaus and Macapa. According to the folder, the three cities “urgently need to expand the number of intensive care beds to serve patients.”
The collapse of the health system was anticipated by Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta in March, when he pointed out, in a press conference, that the hospital network could have difficulties in caring for the population in late April:
– Sometimes people confuse the collapse with chaotic systems, with critical systems, where those scenes are seen, people on stretchers. The breakdown is when you can have the money, you can have the health plan, you can have the court order, but there just is no system for you to enter.
Missing Parts:Respirator production capacity in China is compromised, says embassy spokesman in Brazil
In the capital of Ceará, the occupancy rate of public beds in the ICU is already 85%. The state government estimates that the peak of contamination will occur between April 25 and 27, when the mark of more than 3,000 positive cases of disease must be reached. There was a call to the population not to travel during Easter.
– If we do not add new beds, new structures as we are predicting, this depletion should occur at the end of April – evaluates the mayor of Fortaleza, Roberto Cláudio (PDT). – Strategies such as reducing the number of critically ill patients and buying new equipment need to work.
In Manaus, the Delphina Aziz Hospital, a referral unit for Covid-19 patients, already had at least 95% of beds occupied last week. According to health professionals, the system has already collapsed: the state government has not confirmed the information. The prognosis is that the number of infected people who will turn to the health system will peak this week. The government has stepped up awareness campaigns on the importance of social isolation, but says they won’t take effect immediately.
The researcher of the National School of Public Health of Fiocruz Margareth Portela highlights the challenges to combat the coronavirus in the country:
– Only 10% of the municipalities in Brazil have an ICU bed. Half of the country’s approximately 6,000 hospitals have fewer than 36 beds, a very low capacity. They do not have a respirator, defibrillator, tomograph … And Covid-19 needs a critical patient care structure.
