The capitals have more than 300 mayoral candidates approved at conventions; number of registrants may be the highest in 20 years | Choice in numbers

The number of candidates may still change, since the Electoral Justice needs to approve the registration of candidacies and there may be withdrawals, as happens every year. A withdrawal was already registered on Thursday (17), in Palmas (TO), for example.

Still, it is possible to forecast that 2020 should be the year with the highest number of registered candidates in the capitals of the last 20 years at least. This is because, in the year with the highest number of candidates (2016), there were 209 applicants for the Executive position in the capitals, a much smaller number.

This is what a survey of the G1 carried out on the basis of the candidacies confirmed in the party conventions of all capitals and data from the TSE.

Last Wednesday (16) was the last day allowed for conventions, events in which the parties make the candidates official.

Belo Horizonte (MG), Curitiba (PR) and Porto Velho (RO) are the capitals with the highest number of applications approved at conventions: 16.

Porto Velho, by the way, is the capital that should have the largest increase in competitors in relation to the 2016 elections. Four years ago, seven candidates ran for mayor. That is, an increase of almost 130%.

In São Paulo and Rio, if all are approved and there is no last-minute dropout, there will be 14 candidates in each of the cities. There were 11 in both in the last election.

Campo Grande (MS) is the only city so far with fewer candidates this year. One less. But this difference may be greater, since the 2016 data only counts the candidates registered, in fact, in the TSE.

In the last elections, for example, 19 candidates were formalized at conventions in Campo Grande. But three of them withdrew before even registering with the TSE (some because they decided to become vices on another ticket). This can happen in other cities.

In Palmas, for example, a candidate has already surrendered this year, this Thursday (17), one day after the deadline for the conventions.

The data collected by the G1 previous elections take into account all candidates registered with the Electoral Tribunal (including those who resigned later or were deemed unsuitable). Only candidates approved in conventions and not registered with the TSE later are not in the account.

According to experts, there are two main reasons for the increase, which must be confirmed before September 26 (deadline for registration of applications):

• the end of councilor coalitions, as dwarf parties must run mayoral candidates in order to leverage councilor nominations
• the tightening of the barrier clause in 2022, as the parties are already preparing to launch more competitive candidacies for the Chamber of Deputies

This will be the first time that councilors will not be able to participate in coalitions.

The electoral reform, which addresses the end of coalitions in proportional election, was enacted by Congress in 2017. As a result, the candidate for a seat on the City Council, for example, can participate in the election only for the party to which is affiliated (without coalition formation, as in previous elections).

For the office of mayor (majority election), it is still possible to unite different parties in support of one candidate.

The electoral law expert Acacio Miranda says that when there were coalitions for the election of councilors, the large and small parties, the so-called “mannequins”, came together. In this way, the votes of the dwarves were used in the sum so that the electoral quotient was reached and so that the candidates of the big parties could be elected.

“Since there is no coalition, the dwarf is no longer interesting. From this, they had the need to launch their own candidates for councilor competitively. And the only way to do it for the position of councilor is to link the image of this candidate to a candidate for mayor, ”says Miranda.

“So, [com o fim das coligações]I stop negotiating my television time and my few votes with the big parties, and, as a way of survival, I am forced to elect someone as a councilor. But for that, it is necessary for me to run for mayor, so that he has more space in the debates and in the media, and his votes have an impact on the candidates for councilman.

Therefore, according to the expert, it makes sense that many cities in the country have an increase in candidacies for mayor. “It will happen in general, mainly in big cities, where the festivities have more value,” he says.

The lawyer João Fabio Silva da Fontoura, a specialist in electoral law, agrees and cites other factors. “The creation of new acronyms and alignment or misalignment with the federal government may also help explain this increase in the number of candidates.”

Another point behind the increase in candidates is the fact that the barrier clause will be stricter in the 2022 elections.

The barrier clause establishes electoral performance criteria for parties’ access to Party Fund resources and free time for radio and television.

It already began to take effect in the 2018 elections. Since then, only the parties that obtained at least 1.5% of the valid votes in the dispute for the Chamber of Deputies, distributed in, at least, have the right to the fund of the party and propaganda time. , a third of the federative units, with at least 1% of the valid votes in each one of them; or have elected at least 9 deputies, distributed in at least one third of the federative units.

In 2022, however, this percentage will increase to 2%. Parties that do not reach this percentage will not have access to resources and may even become extinct.

“It became important for the dwarf parties to have federal deputies and votes in 2022. So they are going to run candidates for mayor now so they can make a name for themselves and be strong candidates for the post of federal deputy in 2022,” says Miranda.

For Miranda, these party strategies are valid. “I think it’s the only way for them to get results in the future. It is not an exact formula, but in some circumstances it will have worked. In other words, the small parties will elect councilors with few votes, ”he says.