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Today, Brazil celebrated 21 consecutive days with more than a thousand victims in average deaths from coronavirus: 1,050 victims in the last seven days. The country also registered the fourth day with the highest number of confirmed deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours: 1,357 new deaths. The survey is the consortium of press vehicles of which Twitter it is part, according to data provided by state health departments.
On Tuesday (9), the country confirmed 1,340 new deaths from covid-19, until then, the fourth highest mark seen in 2021, which has been exceeded today. The worst record of the year was on January 28, with 1,439 estimated deaths. This is followed by January 20 (1,382) and January 8 (1,379). This does not indicate when the deaths actually occurred, but rather the date they appeared on official balance sheets.
Thus, Brazil adds 234,945 deaths caused by covid-19 since March 2020, when the pandemic began.
Despite the high number of deaths, Brazil remains stable in the moving average of deaths, with a variation of -1% compared to the last 14 days.
This is already the second longest period with an average of deaths from covid-19 above 1,000 in the entire pandemic in Brazil. The largest sequence occurred between July 3 and August 2 (31 days). In this interval, an average of 1,097 deaths was recorded, verified on July 25.
Only the South region continues to fall (-27%), while the others stabilize: Midwest (3%), Northeast (9%), North (7%) and Southeast (1) and South (-15%).
In the states, eight show an acceleration in deaths, while 11 and more in the Federal District remain stable and another seven fall.
Experts indicate the calculation of the moving average.
To measure the situation of deaths from covid-19, experts indicate using the moving average of deaths, which calculates the average of records observed in the last seven days. The operation is the most suitable to observe the trend of the statistics, since it balances the abrupt variations of the numbers throughout the week.
The media consortium adopted this period to verify fluctuations in the moving average. It is possible to speak of a decrease in figures when the decrease is greater than 15% if it is verified in the last 14 days, in this case, the period of the last two weeks. If the numbers rise more than 15%, the epidemic accelerates. Intermediate values indicate stability.
See the situation by state and in the Federal District:
Southeast region
- Espírito Santo: decrease (-23%)
- Minas Gerais: stable (13%)
- Rio de Janeiro: decrease (-20%)
- São Paulo: stable (11%)
Northern region
- Para: acceleration (69%)
- Rondônia: stable (15%)
- Roraima: acceleration (87%)
- Tocantins: acceleration (31%)
Northeast Region
- Bay: acceleration (23%)
- Maranhão: acceleration (103%)
- Pernambuco: acceleration (20%)
- Rio Grande do Norte: stable (5%)
Central West Region
- Federal District: stable (4%)
- Goiás: acceleration (18%)
- Mato Grosso: stable (1%)
- Mato Grosso do Sul: stable (-14%)
Southern region
- Rio Grande do Sul: stable (-8%)
- Santa Catarina: decrease (-20%)
Health data
The Ministry of Health announced today that Brazil registered 1,330 new deaths from covid-19 in the last 24 hours. This is the second day with at least 1,300 deaths, according to data from the folder. Since the start of the pandemic, the country has reached a total of 234,850 people killed as a result of the disease.
On Tuesday (9), 1,350 new deaths from covid-19 were registered between one day and the next, the third highest mark of the year, according to data from the ministry.
From yesterday to today, there were 59,602 new confirmed cases of covid-19 in Brazil, reaching a total of 9,659,167 infected since the start of the pandemic.
According to the federal government, 8,596,130 people recovered from the disease, with another 828,187 being followed.
Transmission in Brazil is out of control, says Imperial College
The transmission of covid-19 in Brazil remains uncontrolled, with a slight negative oscillation, according to a survey conducted by Imperial College London. The survey is published weekly and monitors the progress of the disease in different countries.
The data are from the epidemiological week ended last Monday (8) and indicate that there is no slowdown in contagion. The British university notes that the Brazilian Rt ranges between 0.91 and 1.05. When the Rt is greater than 1, it shows that each infected person is contaminating more than one person and indicates that the virus is progressing uncontrollably.
As a result, projections for Brazil indicate that the country may register 7,460 patient deaths from covid-19 until next week, 92 more than the estimated number for a median scenario. In the worst case, deaths can reach 7,960.
The only country that exceeds the projection of Brazil is Mexico, with a total of 7,520 deaths predicted by the covid-19. Although the United States is approaching 470,000 deaths from the virus, data for the country does not appear in the study.
Vehicles gather to obtain information
In response to the decision of the government of Jair Bolsonaro to restrict access to data on the covid-19 pandemic, media Twitter, El Estado de S. Paulo, Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, G1 and Extra formed a consortium to work collaboratively to seek the necessary information directly from the state health departments of the 27 units of the Federation.
The federal government, through the Ministry of Health, should be the natural source of these figures, but the attitudes of the authorities and the president himself during the pandemic cast doubt on the availability of the data and its accuracy.
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