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The first round of polls carried out by Ibope in 25 capitals shows a scenario with significant differences in the way voters evaluate the administration of President Jair Bolsonaro.
While in Salvador, Bahia, the rate of those who consider the government excellent or good is 18%, in the capital of Roraima, Boa Vista, approval reaches 66%. When analyzing the failure rate, these two cities also occupy both extremes. In the first capital, the percentage of those who rate the government as bad or very bad reaches 62%, while in the second, 15%.
Only in São Luís (MA) an Ibope survey has not yet been conducted after the official registration of applications.
The average approval rate for the Bolsonaro government is highest in the North and Midwest capitals and lowest in the Northeast, South and Southeast. The professor at the Federal University of Goiás (UFG), Pedro Mundim believes that, with the exception of Boa Vista and Salvador, which are far from the average, the rest of the capitals are closer to the recently published national surveys.
Ibope’s latest national poll on the president’s approval, completed in September, showed the Bolsonaro government’s approval at 40%. Those that considered regulating the government amounted to 29%. This was the same percentage of Brazilians who considered the government bad or very bad.
In this first round of Ibope investigation in the capitals, it is possible to identify three groups, according to the level of approval and disapproval of the president. The first includes cities with approval within the national average, with small variations within the margin of error, such as Goiânia, Palmas, João Pessoa, Maceió, Macapá, Belo Horizonte and Natal.
In the group of cities with approval above the national average are, in addition to Boa Vista, cities such as Manaus, Porto Velho, Cuiabá and Rio Branco. In the third group of cities with a high percentage of voters who disapprove of Bolsonaro’s government are, in addition to Salvador, cities such as Teresina, Porto Alegre, Fortaleza, São Paulo, Recife, Belém, Vitória and Florianópolis.
According to Pedro Mundim, only a more detailed analysis of the political situation in Boa Vista and Salvador can provide more information to explain these significant differences. However, he points out that the capital of Bahia has been a place of resistance for left-wing parties and this may be related to the president’s greatest disapproval.
“In Salvador, there is a tradition of PT leaders in the capital or of left-wing parties that can explain this high disapproval. In other words, what can be said is that there are local issues that affect these percentages. But, in general, the capitals are relatively within the general average of the national investigation ”, observes Mundim.
The UFG professor draws attention to the effects that the president’s approval and disapproval indicator can have on elections in capitals. In Rio, Mayor Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) and Luiz Lima (PSL) try to paste the image to the president. Bolsonaro’s approval in Rio, however, is numerically below the national average (34%). In São Paulo, where Bolsonaro’s approval is 27%, Celso Russomano (Republicans) is the candidate supported by the president.
“There is a clear relationship. When the government is very disapproved, it is not interesting that the candidates stick their image to the president. When approval is high, this can result in some gain for the candidate. But we must pay attention to the following: if more than one candidate seeks this strategy, the voters will not be able to differentiate them because both will be positioned as allies of the president. When this happens, voters tend to look for other information to identify how these candidates differ, ”explains Mundim.
