The 5 themes that will move the market this Tuesday



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After four days of decline, the US futures index registered a rise on Tuesday morning (20). Democrat Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of Congress, had said Tuesday was the deadline for approval of a deal with the Donald Trump administration for an economic stimulus package, rocked by the pandemic.

Europe remains attentive to the alarming news about the new coronavirus. Ireland is preparing to institute its highest levels of restrictions, while Wales plans to initiate a national lockdown. On the positive side, the main companies listed on the continent’s stock exchanges reported gains.

Ambassador Robert O’Brien, Donald Trump’s security adviser, arrived in Brazil on Monday with the official program to sign agreements to combat corruption, good regulatory practices and trade facilitation. Speaking to businessmen during a videoconference organized by Fiesp (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo), he also criticized China and criticized the Huawei company, interested in entering the 5G market in Brazil. The fight against the company is part of his agenda in the country.

And the supra-party organization CLP (Public Leadership Center) proposes, in alliance with Insper economist Ricardo Paes de Barros, a model to enable an income transfer program of R $ 27 billion to replace Bolsa Família and emergency aid, without drilling the spending ceiling.

It is worth mentioning that, the day before, the gains on Brazilian assets were supported by declarations from the authorities that mitigated the fiscal risk. Paulo Guedes said that Brazil will continue to carry out reforms until the end and the mayor, Rodrigo Maia, said that he is against the extension of the calamity decree and that a solution must be found within the spending ceiling.

In the Brazilian business sphere, CSN applied for registration on Monday to carry out the initial offer of shares in CSN Mineração. And Vale reported a jump of more than 30% in iron ore production between the second and third quarters of 2020. World markets also follow the publication of Netflix results on Tuesday.

Check out the highlights:

1. Global grants

This Tuesday the deadline set by the Democrat Nancy Pelosi, president of Congress, to approve a new stimulus package for the US economy with the government.

The market has spent months observing the possibility of approving a new package of this type. The above $ 3 trillion was approved at the start of the covid pandemic. In recent weeks, the Donald Trump administration has proposed releasing an additional $ 1.9 trillion. But the outlines of the package are still being discussed with Democratic representatives, whose most recent proposal was for about $ 2.2 trillion.

A spokesman for the mayor said differences were narrowing in negotiations. Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to make another attempt to reach an agreement today.

In addition, on Monday night, Intel shares closed higher after Korean chipmaker SK Hyinx announced that it plans to buy Intel’s NAND memory and storage division for $ 9 billion. Shares of IBM fell 3% after the company reported a drop in revenue in the third quarter.

The S&P 500 Futuro Index increased + 0.64%; Nasdaq Futures Up 0.67%; And the future Dow Jones is up 0.53%.

In Europe, Logitech International shares rose more than 15% with the disclosure of a sharp increase in its earnings in the second quarter. Shares in pharmaceutical company Sartorius also performed well after the company said it should have higher-than-expected revenue in 2021. The company says it is benefiting from sales of equipment to produce coronavirus vaccines. Shares of Swiss bank UBS also rose, after the company announced that third-quarter earnings nearly doubled.

The Eurostoxx index fell 0.17% in the morning. The UK FTSE rises 0.07%; France’s CAC 40 was up 0.28%; Italy’s FTSE MIB rises 0.2%. And the Dax of Germany fluctuates up to 0.5%.

Asian stock markets closed without a defined trend, while investors awaited the definition of benchmark interest rates for loans. They were unchanged, in line with market expectations. The interest rates on loans maturing in one year are 3.85%. The five-year loan rates are 4.65%.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange in China closed 0.47% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.11%; South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.50%. Japan’s Nikkei index closed 0.44% lower.

See the performance of the markets at 6:50 am (Brasilia time):

* S&P 500 Futures (US), + 0.64%
* Nasdaq Futures (US), + 0.67%
* Dow Jones Futures (US), + 0.53%
Europe
* Dax (Germany), -0.5%
* FTSE 100 (UK), + 0.07%
* CAC 40 (France), + 0.28%
* FTSE MIB (Italy), + 0.2%

Asia
* Nikkei (Japan), -0.44% (closed)
* Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), + 0.11% (closed)
* Kospi (South Korea), + 0.50% (closed)
* Shanghai SE (China), + 0.47% (closed)

Raw materials and bitcoin
* WTI oil, -0.05%, at $ 40.81 a barrel
* Brent oil, -0.14%, at $ 42.56 a barrel
* Bitcoin, $ 11,782.30, + 2.68%
On ore: ** Iron ore futures traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange closed 0.32% higher, trading at 789 yuan, equivalent to $ 118.10 today (in the last 24 hours).
USD / CNY = 6.68

2. Agenda of indicators

The market follows this Tuesday (20) the publication of data from the second October preview of the IGP-M inflation index. The General Price-Market Index decelerated the increase to 2.92% in the second preview of September, compared to an increase of 4.57% in the same period of the previous month, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) reported on Monday .

The IGP-M is used as a reference for the correction of contractual values, such as the rental of properties. The second IGP-M preview calculated the price changes in the period between the 21st of the previous month and the 10th of the reference month.

The United States publishes the September home construction start date at 9:30 am. Charles Evans, chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve, and Lael Brainard are among the Fed officials who spoke today.

3. US advisor against Huawei in Brazil

Ambassador Robert O’Brien, Donald Trump’s security adviser, leads a delegation that arrived in the country on Monday (19) with the official intention of participating in the approval of a new commercial package signed by Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) or President American. The signing of three protocols is expected, aimed at: fighting corruption, good regulatory practices and trade facilitation. In the second, the representative has already signed an agreement to promote the bilateral flow of trade and investment.

But O’Brien is also expected to use the hearings on Tuesday (20) with Bolsonaro and Minister Augusto Heleno, from the Institutional Security Office, to seek to reduce China’s global influence in Brazil. The goal is to block Huawei from the 5G market, arguing that it would not offer security and privacy guarantees. He already spoke out against Huawei on Monday night.

In a videoconference with businessmen held at Fiesp (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo), O’Brien stated that “Brazil is a country of ‘high technology’, like Israel, Singapore, countries with aerospace, defense, mining and technology” , Valor reported. And that the US government is concerned “that China is turning more and more to countries like Brazil.”

“Especially if you have Huawei in your 5G network, there will be ‘back doors’ and the ability to decrypt almost all the data that is generated anywhere in Brazil, whether by the government, on the national security front or by private companies in their abilities to innovate and develop new products, techniques and practices, ”he said. The term “back door” refers to ways of accessing computer systems without authorization.

He said it was necessary to protect intellectual property, “especially by China”, as a way to “encourage more innovation.” “We strongly recommend that our partners, including Brazil, use only reliable providers in their 5G network.”

The delegation also includes the Deputy United States Trade Representative, Michael Namelka; the president of Eximbank (Export and Import Bank), Kimberly Reed; the director of the state development bank DFC (International Development Finance Corporation of the United States), Sabrina Teichman.

4. Boring Homeless Income Program

The newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo highlights a study by the CLP (Public Leadership Center) in alliance with the Insper economist Ricardo Paes de Barros, which proposes ways to enable an income transfer program of R $ 27 billion to replace to the Bolsa Família and emergency aid, without breaking the spending ceiling.

Created in 2008, the CLP defines itself as a supra-party organization, which seeks to involve society and develop public leaders to face the problems in Brazil and develop a more efficient state.

Both the leaders of Congress and the government have shown their commitment to an income transfer program called Renta Ciudadana. But the market tends to react negatively if a program like this blows up the spending ceiling. The economic team even considered using resources from precatoriosis – debts that the government must pay after court convictions – and Fundeb (Fund for the Maintenance of the Development of Basic Education). But these proposals were badly received.

The CLP says that it believes it is possible, however, to create the program without breaking the spending ceiling, restructuring the public accounts in six years.

In 2020, CLP proposes to reformulate existing social programs, with the merger of Abono Salarial and Salário Família and the incorporation of unemployment insurance with the FGTS (Seniority Guarantee Fund). Changes would be made at no additional cost.

In 2021, he proposes to incorporate closed insurance, paid to fishermen, to the project to end the super salaries that exceed the ceiling of the public function and carry out privatizations.

By 2026, he proposes to carry out an administrative reform that affects senior officials. The proposal includes a benefit of R $ 90 for young people from 15 to 17 years old.

5. Corporate radar

CSN applied for registration on Monday to make an initial CSN Mineração share offering, which will be coordinated by 11 financial institutions.

Retailer Grupo Big also applied for registration to make its initial public offering.

Amid information that its controllers intended to sell the operation in Brazil, the C&A group said there is no process in this regard. And that C&A continues to support its Brazilian operations.

Vale’s iron ore production reached 88.7 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2020, up 2.3% compared to the same period last year. And 31.2% in the second quarter, the company reported on Monday (19). Petrobras publishes today the production and sales report for the third quarter, after the markets close.

In a report published Monday, the daily Valor writes that a partial merger that has been negotiated between brMalls and Ancar Ivanhoe would lead to the creation of the largest shopping center operator in Brazil, with 55 projects.

(Com Reuters e Bloomberg)

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