Study shows expressive increase in hospitalizations due to respiratory syndromes and indicates underreporting of Covid-19 | Coronavirus

Esses given, according to Fiocruz, infectious diseases, epidemiologists and other specialists ouvidos hair G1, indicates a subnotification of two cases of Covid-19, caused by hair novo coronavirus Sars-CoV-2.

SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, is a serious respiratory illness that requires hospitalization caused by a virus, whether or not it is a coronavirus, or influenza ou outro. The cases have been reported by the Hospitals of the Ministry of Health, and at Fiocruz it consolidates and discloses these data given by the Infogripe platform.

The contagion of Fiocruz was held on April 4 of this year, or Brazil had 33.5 thousand hospitalizations due to SARS, since 2010, since 2010, of 3.9 thousand cases. Also in 2016, when we had an H1N1 supply, there were 10,4 thousand cases registered in the same period of the year.

“The number of cases is very high. Completely out of the box,” says Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of Infogripe, from Fiocruz.

You reasons, second ele, são:

• Há mais hospitalizações em decorrência da Covid-19
• The speed with which the viruses have turned out to be greater than in previous years (there is a “greater speed of dissemination”)

A third party, says, that the system gives Fiocruz to receive a higher number of notifications from private hospitals. For that reason, compared to this year as previous years, it is not perfect. But, second Gomes, also discounting the dice of private hospitals, to high expressive serious.

“Another fator, whose contribution was not large, was the fact that our last years of reporting were basically only for the public network. And, this year, for a private network, we also had to report. But more than any other contribution. you others [fatores]. ”

The scientists of Fiocruz list three reasons that Sars-Cov-2 apontam as or responsible for expressive hair growth in two cases:

1. increase in international dates for the period
2. Gone as you are shaved
3. Percentage of negative tests for other higher flu

“There was nothing to justify or increase the number of cases of idosos. People have had an anticipation of heavy weight this year. You can be certain that it is Covid-19. É provavelmente quase tudo Covid-19. Não tem outra explicação pra isso ”, says Antonio Bandeira, epidemiologist, infectologist and director of the Brazilian Society of Infectology.

Além disso, or the last bulletin of the Ministry of Health shows that there are more than 20 thousand cases of SARS still under investigation, awaiting or diagnosis.

The rapid increase in hospitalizations due to respiratory problems occurs this year in a time when there are usually few cases. Or it is normal that the cases begin to increase along with cold, not fim do outono and beginning of winter. Not at all or what happened in 2020.

“At the time of Covid-19, it happened during this time that two respiratory viruses were attended, in general, in Baixa,” said researchers from Fiocruz. “Hardly in 2010 and 2016, the SRAG season took place earlier (not at the end of the year and out of the country) in the majority of two Brazilian states, with the prevalence of viruses of Influenza A.”

Two specialists are concerned that the situation will worsen, not in winter, when your other viruses will cause international hospitalizations due to SARS, or that it may cause an overload that is even greater than the health system.

“Either increase in hospitalization due to SARS occurs very early in 2020, it does not affect care, once there is a tendency of increase in cases between or out and winter, above all in the states of highest latitude (most years).”

O Fiocruz study was motivated by rapid hair growth, two cases were identified. Ao analyze the numbers, the Viram researchers who had a move did not profile two patients. As common flu, registered in previous years, we mainly affected children, with less than 2 years.

The new cases are predominantly idosos e pessoas comorbidities, such as diabetes, a characteristic of Covid-19.

Das internações por SRAG em 2020, 36% foram de idosos, over 60 years old. Patients with less than 2 years will respond for only 10% in two cases.

Negative tests and awaiting results

Another one because two researchers found Fiocruz or a large number of negative tests for other flu, such as Influenza A, or the most common type. Or 91% chegou index. Second specialists, isso indicates that or reason gives SRAG é outra doença, nova.

“Chama a atenção a alta negatção dos testes laboratoriais de SRAG na vigilância, both historically and in 2020”, affirmed the researchers. “A negative two tests reached 91%, a level not found before.”

At the same time, you have no Covid-19 available for all patients. Ememo among you that foram tested, muitos still await or result.

Professor shows anus ‘fora da curva’

O professor of statistics from UFRN Marcus Nunes analyzed the data from Infogripe, from Fiocruz, and from the two charts, showing how or number of cases in 2020 he is in a Patamar muito above remaining, including 2016, when Houve or H1N1 supply.

Every month, I choose a topic to do a statistical analysis and show for some of them a faculty, which was also published on their blog.

Or professor said that he did not have enough tests in Brazil and decided to look for the dice of respiratory problems to confer if he had under-reported Covid-19. You have to analyze the data from Infogripe, concluded that this probability is very high. “Or the graph clearly shows that 2020 is an outlier (out of the curve),” he says.

Nunes also published a site with curves for each state, showing a difference in the number of cases between each year. In states such as RJ, MG and CE, at the discretion of the highest.

Specialists apontam subnotificação

Antonio Bandeira, epidemiologist, infectologist and director of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases, says that a high number of patients are clearly underreported, as well as a victim profile. “[O fato de ter mais idosos] é because of Covid-19. I have no doubt. ”

“A SRAG is a table with the highest respiratory rate associated with viral manifestations. It will not differentiate what type of virus according to the symptoms, it cannot be caused by any type of virus, Influenza, Covid, H1N1. normais, sem pandemic, generally reflect cases of Influenza, because within those viruses it is more common year to year. But Covid-19 reproduces a respiratory chart. This number must reflect the two things together. ”

“I did not fear how knowing sem testes or that it was every um. No beginning of the year, in Bahia, tinha muito mais Influenza giving us testes. Agora no. I fear very much Covid do que Influenza. It was just that, as a demand from Covid, it was very big, people were afraid to wait to show you the results of all isso, “he says.

Paulo Inácio Prado, who works with quantitative biology and is a member of the Covid-19 Observatory, a voluntary group of researchers, says that Fiocruz has studied a very great importance. “The first fora were to perceive that they were provavely detecting the cases of Covid,” he said. “These data confirmed the hypothesis given by the team from Fiocruz that people were having a very significant increase in two cases of SARS and that this was becoming very low. à Covid-19 ”

“A big question is why people feared so many cases still not tested, were people tested with a tax of 70% for or Covid?” He asks. “It is important to distinguish between different things that affect these dice. Uma é o delay of notification. A part of it happens and is going to be registered. A second é a subnotificação mesmo. It means that the system is not managing to notify all cases. ”

Tulio Batista Franco, a sanitarian at the Federal Fluminense University, says that this phenomenon is underreporting and not a visible country.

“He is very close. As a matter of fact, he feared severe acute respiratory syndrome, but he was truly dying of Covid-19,” he says.

Or specialist says that, as no one has a proper testagem, “every um fala or what he wants”. “You are not getting a correct diagnosis for the people. You are not afraid of testing for the number of the government.”

Sérgio Cimerman, scientific coordinator of the Brazilian Society of Infectology, also says that the number is “not normal”.

“It is because of the circulation of Covid-19. Because it is the most transmissible and most contagious virus. People accuse that H1N1 was very aggressive, and very contrary hair.”

For Patrícia Canto, a pneumologist at the Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, with a low notice, at the estimate of the death rate is also not real. “You are only testing serious cases. They were voiced or totally altered. Then, with certainty, the taxa of mortality was voiced by a testagem maior, because you increased or number of infected people.”

“This is because people are so shocked that they make more sense of health than us. Então or profissional de saúde who is committed to doença, needs the exam to be able to return or keep his quarentena. A questão dos testes é fundamental”, diz. “Or people do not test a population mapped by a sub-dimension of two numbers. People know that every one of these cases contaminates less than 2, 3 [pessoas], it is not forem mais, people fear that multiply by hair minus 3 or number of infected na população. ”

Sem know or actual number of infected, or planjamento two health systems prejudiced, second ela. “People are able to confirm that, in certain locations, you are still in the greatest number of cases, you are draining many of your surveillance systems and services that are equipped with two hospital devices. You can send doctors. You end up learning about two cases. You heard about a dose more, more, you could get more than two cases, and you could manage to handle a lot of lawsuits, respirators, and a profusion of health problems. ”

Or that worries, second to specialist, é or impact desse quadro. “Or it is a problem, in very short time, the overloaded ficarem systems in the ICU thermoses and the mechanical ventilators / ventilators for a large number of patients who come in at the same time. The services are only for the population in normal situations, not for pandemic situations, as we are experiencing now. People could not be sure that other situations will continue to occur. As people with infarction, as with people with bacterial infections. We are now eating at a time of year. People are afraid of breathing, being more prevalent as well. People are vai ter uma sobreposição da pandemia, which, by itself, já esgota or nosso saúde system, sobreposta às outras doenças that people expect to find na população, especially nessa time of year. ”

“As people doing more at home, people tend to protect them from exposures to these respiratory viruses in a general way, so much so that this is one of the main strategies does not combat that pandemic. For example, this is Transmission for children. As children, they were not in schools, they were not in creches, but they tend to decrease these respiratory infections, “he says.