STF already has 4 to 1 in favor of releasing the re-election of Maia and Alcolumbre

The ministers Alexandre de Moraes and Ricardo Lewandowski followed this Friday (December 4, 2020) the vote of Minister Gilmar Mendes in favor of authorizing the candidacy of Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) and Davi Alcolumbre (DEM-AP) for reelection in House and Senate, respectively. Minister Dias Toffoli had already voted in favor of this understanding.

The judgment of Direct Action of Unconstitutionality that addresses the issue is made in the virtual plenary session of the STF (Supreme Federal Court). The score is 4 to 1 in favor of authorizing Maia and Alcolumbre to try for reelection. Only Minister Nunes Marques disagreed. He agrees that re-election is possible, but not for anyone who has been re-elected before. In the current scenario, the understanding of Nunes Marques gives Alcolumbre the green light, but save Maia.

Ministers have until December 11 to enter their votes into the system. If someone does not, the vote is counted as favorable to the understanding of the speaker, Gilmar Mendes. In other words, it favors Rodrigo Maia and Davi Alcolumbre.

OR Power360 He found that the position expressed by Gilmar should have a majority in the Court. The thesis presented by the speaker has 4 main points:

1. reelection released – is authorized, regardless of whether or not he is in the same Legislature (period of 4 years between general elections);
2. just once – there can only be one consecutive reelection;
3. Brasilia, States and cities – the rule is now widely applied in Town Halls, Legislative Assemblies (in the States) and the District Chamber (in Brasilia);
4. only in the future – The new rule applies from now on, regardless of whether whoever holds the office of president in the Legislative Branch has already been re-elected.

Gilmar initially wanted to open up an unrestricted reelection possibility and transfer to Congress the responsibility for establishing the rule more clearly, thesis that it would be an internal matter that the House and Senate would resolve. This upset the STF ministers.

The formula of restricting re-election and disciplining what happens in all the legislative branches of the country pleased the majority of the magistrates.

As there will be a limit for the re-election of mayors of city councils and legislative assemblies, the Supreme Court ministers believe that this rule minimizes the bad impact of making a change in the rule to allow new terms for Rodrigo Maia and Davi Alcolumbre. In cities and states there are countless cases of state councilors and deputies who remain in charge of local legislative powers for many years.

Read the full vote for Gilmar Mendes here.

Nunes Marques diverges

Minister Kassio Nunes Marques voted and accompanied Gilmar only partially. Recently appointed by Jair Bolsonaro and installed on November 5, 2020 in the STF, he was the hope of government officials. The hope of the politicians who opposed the re-election of Rodrigo Maia was that Nunes Marques would ask for a leading role and thus bring the trial to the real plenary session of the Supreme Court – and not just stay virtual, a system in which each magistrate sends his vote electronically and there is no debate.

Backstage talks convinced the government that Nunes Marques’ eventual prominence request would be an unsuccessful strategy. Gilmar Mendes could then grant a court order (provisional decision) and the re-election thesis would prevail.

In addition, the sentence in the Plenary of the Court would depend on whether the president of the STF, Luiz Fux, set a date, since in a few days there will be a recess, the matter will be suspended and Gilmar’s precautionary measure would be the rule to follow.

In the end, Nunes Marques did not ask for prominence and also cast his vote at dawn this Friday (04.04.2020). The youngest minister of the Court argued that it is possible that the presidents of the Chambers of the Legislative Power are re-elected, but not those who are in office and have already been re-elected. In other words, it prevents the re-election of Rodrigo Maia in the Chamber, but allows the re-election of Davi Alcolumbre in the Senate.

Read the vote of Nunes Marques.

Behind the scenes

There have been many behind-the-scenes negotiations in recent days for the Gilmar Mendes vote, as presented, to prevail in the STF. The main condition was a promise from Rodrigo Maia to various ministers saying that he will not run for another term as mayor.

There is an exception so that Maia can run again, as was agreed with the STF ministers: the deputy should be able to be unanimous between the government and the opposition and thus his candidacy would be consensual. It is a difficult condition to fulfill. The Planalto Palace does not want Maia to be in charge of the Chamber for another 2 years. President Jair Bolsonaro thinks that it would be the end of his government, since he would again have difficulties in obtaining the guidelines that he considers relevant in Congress.

The national president of DEM, the mayor of Salvador, ACM Neto, was in Brasilia this week and maintained contact with STF ministers. Neto also considered it reasonable that Rodrigo Maia should not run again unless there is consensus, which helped solidify the agreement around Gilmar Mendes’ vote. DEM benefits. Even without Maia’s re-election, he will continue with Alcolumbre in charge of the Senate for another 2 years.

The dispute over the heads of the House and the Senate will take place in the first week of February 2021.

OR Power360 He found that the trend is for Rodrigo Maia to run for another term, even though there is a prior consensus around his candidacy. If this happens, the mayor will be at great risk, as he will weaken before some STF ministers who took his word. If you run and lose, Maia’s situation is even more delicate.

From now on, with the rules defined (the vote of Gilmar Mendes prevailing, which is the most likely), the candidate battle for viability begins.

The favorite name of the Planalto Palace is the deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL). On the side of Rodrigo Maia, in addition to competing himself, are Baleia Rossi (MDB), Marcos Pereira (Republicans) and Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP).

There is also the possibility that the candidacy of a third, a third name. The two hypotheses already suggested have not yet taken off: Fábio Faria (PSD-RN) and Tereza Cristina (DEM-MS). Both have a mandate in the Chamber, but they hold positions in the Esplanada de Bolsonaro.

Fábio Faria showed no interest in entering the dispute and is campaigning for Arthur Lira. Tereza Cristina does not have political density within the Chamber to obtain broad support.

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